So many of us NFL fans enjoy wagering on pro football throughout the season, but the truth is that becoming a consistent and successful NFL bettor is a tough thing to do. That’s where employing the proper NFL betting strategy comes into play.
If NFL betting were easy, every average Joe would win and oddsmakers would be out of business. It requires more than having just your gut feeling on a game and a few bucks to spend, as the proper strategy needs to be applied to develop some kind of logical reasoning for making those picks.
The search for the best strategies for NFL betting is a never-ending one but the point is that having a plan is important if you want to go to sleep on Sunday night as a winner.
Some of our suggestions will fall more under the category of NFL gambling advice or tips, but all of the following points can be included in your proverbial plan of attack against the sportsbook. Here’s a list of our 10 best NFL betting strategies, which we’ll explain in further detail below.
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The very first piece of NFL betting advice that anyone needs to hear involves properly managing their bankroll because without it, there simply is no wagering to be done.
Sports betting bankroll management can be done in a few different ways. In many cases, new bettors are encouraged to wager between 1% and 5% of the total bankroll at a time, depending on how conservative or aggressive you choose to be. This is a decent barometer to use, especially when first starting out.
Even if you aren’t keeping track of what you spend down to the last penny, it is incredibly crucial that self-discipline is practiced while wagering on any sport but especially the NFL.
With so many games and markets available throughout the day on Sunday, losing track of exactly how much you wager can be easy and the desire to chase losses with new bets can be tempting. Understanding what you can responsibly spend and not stepping outside of that boundary can be just as important as picking winners.
The scouring report is another vital part of the decision-making process, and this strategy is basically a call to do your research. This is how you remain up-to-date on a team’s recent form, injuries, any changes in the depth chart, and the potential game plan for the upcoming week.
Scouting reports and game previews detail what teams do well and what they don’t, which is far more important than just knowing the results of last week’s game and what the team’s records are.
On a standard NFL Sunday, there are at least a dozen games on. That means there are hundreds of markets and literally thousands of individual options for betting on every game. That’s why it’s so important to be somewhat selective when it comes to making picks on Sunday.
You can’t bet on every game and doing so will lead to negative results more often than not. Especially if you are making straight bets, which will an excellent percentage in order to come out on top.
You’d be smart to lock in on a few games or selections, rather than try to make something of the entire board.
Two things the public loves gambling on are favorites and overs. One of the most popular NFL strategies for betting online is fading the public and finding value in underdogs and unders.
There are times, of course, when fading the public also involves taking overs and favorites as well, but it definitely goes the other way more often. Going against the grain isn’t always comfortable, but picking your spots to take advantage of a line pull the wrong way is where bettors potentially gain an edge.
This isn’t a PSA against favorites, merely a reminder to not get caught up in the false security of taking the ‘better’ team every time because it feels safe. On plenty of occasions, that team is giving away too many points or shouldn’t be favored at all, but the public inflates odds by siding with the favorite.
When looking to take an underdog, every half-point matters. Having +3.5 instead of +3 or +6 instead of +5.5 can steal you a win if the score winds up right around the number. Home underdogs have performed well over recent years against the spread, especially in the NFL playoffs.
Yes, rooting for points (and thus, overs) is more fun, and that’s the entire point. While the public wants to have fun and cheer for touchdowns, one of the most effective NFL betting strategies is going under the inflated total. Especially for matchups featuring team(s) with a strong running game or a respectable defense. It can be agonizing, but profitable.
Analyzing which direction the line has moved throughout the week and how it happened is one useful good way to decide when you need to fade the public. The combination of line movement and the percentage of the public on a given side can be some of the most useful information when it comes to making picks.
Reverse line movement in the NFL is what happens when the public is heavily on one side of a matchup, but the line doesn’t reflect the betting action.
An example of this would be if the public was all over the Patriots at -3.5, but rather than the spread moving to -4 as more people bet on it, the line actually moved the other direction toward -3 instead. Reverse lines are a strong indicator of action from professional bettors (known as sharps) opposing the public.
Multi-event wagers, also referred to as exotic bets, can be a great way to establish a rooting interest for more than one game and stay entertained throughout the day.
The most popular of these bets are parlays and teasers. The former is a great way to earn a huge payout, while the other is a great NFL betting strategy for grabbing more favorable odds. Despite their differences, both can be winning formulas if done correctly.
Parlays combine two or more sides into the same bet in exchange for enhanced odds. In order to earn the payout, all sides must win without any losses. Parlays are a popular NFL betting strategy because they can turn a small investment into a large payout.
Each added side increases the odds and the potential payout but makes the wager more risky and difficult to win at the same time. Moneylines, spreads, totals, and in many cases, futures and props, are eligible for NFL parlays.
Teasers are combination bets with at least two sides just as parlays are but you can only use totals and spreads, and the payouts are much more modest. This is because teasers allow you to adjust the spread or total by a predetermined number of points. When it comes to football, most online betting sites offer teasers of 6, 6.5, or 7 points.
Because you can alter the odds, your payout is drastically reduced compared to a parlay. Even though these don’t necessarily present longshot odds, building winning teasers can definitely be a profitable NFL betting strategy.
Live betting on the NFL (also referred to as in-game) means placing wagers on a game after it has already started.
Many times, you’re live betting on games you’re currently watching. This gives you the advantage of possibly noticing how the game is trending and catching an out-of-plane line before it has a chance to adjust.
Football can be a game of runs and sometimes, teams are trailing early and the odds can have huge value with enough time on the clock for a comeback. This strategy can also be used to double up on your original bet as the game progresses, or hedge a bet to cut into potential losses.
Many bettors go straight for the more common markets like moneylines, spreads, and totals. There’s plenty of room for profit, however, in underutilized markets such as props. With less competition and more options in both areas, an edge can be found in some NFL betting lines.
Unlike more traditional lines, most props aren’t poured over throughout the week by oddsmakers. This means that on plenty of occasions more advantageous lines are found on these lesser-used markets than on bigger ones.
Well-researched knowledge of a specific matchup and the circumstances surrounding the game (weather, injuries, style of play) presents regular opportunities to get into the prop betting market. Another lesser-known football betting market is the NFL Draft.
All bettors need to know that odds are not universal from site to site. Some sportsbooks may have different odds altogether, or just a different price for the same odds. One NFL betting strategy for gaining value is shopping around for the most profitable line.
The best way to ensure you are gaining at least some value is by opening multiple sportsbooks accounts and comparing
This is less an NFL betting strategy and more so just advice to live by. You’re going to see plenty of trends throughout the week or you may hear that a particular game or team is a perfect fit for a system, and it’s important to recognize that some of this information is useless.
While possible that systems can lead to winners, there are also plenty of occasions where a system doesn’t take into account all the factors that go into a given game, only some of them. If the trend or system goes back multiple seasons or deals with factors that are no longer relevant, then the trend is out of context and can’t be trusted.
On many occasions, it’s like placing a wager partially blind if you do it based off system or trends alone. Of course, it is important to be aware of trends including how a team performs against the spread, or how many points it scores. But none of this information can be blindly applied with the expectation that you will win.
The best NFL betting strategy is to seek out target reverse line movement and target teams that seem to have the number move in their favor despite public support on the other side.
The easiest bets tend to be favorites on the moneyline, but because there is no value there, we’ll go with teasers. These bets let you alter odds so you don’t need to cover the original spread
There are two ways to win big when betting on football. The first is to bet big, since risking more will lead to winning more. The more cost-effective way to win big, however, would parlays. These low-risk, high-reward bets have the chance to turn a small investment into a large payout.