2019 Preakness Stakes Picks With Odds & Analysis

2019 Preakness Stakes Picks With Odds & Analysis

After a thrilling and surprising twist to the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness Stakes is this Saturday, May 18, and although Country House is not running, there is plenty of action to be had. Here is my Preakness analysis of the and a general guide for how to bet this year’s race. I will go through the list of 13 horses and discuss each, including my overall thoughts on the 2019 Preakness.

When it comes to horse race betting, you can place bets at Derby Jackpot and TVG.

The following article is by long-time horseplaying enthusiast Michael Sherman. Michael has been involved with horse racing for over 25 years. You can follow Michael on Twitter @msherman85.

Preakness Stakes Horses, Odds & Post Position

Horse

Odds

Post Position

War of Will

4-1

Post 1

Bourbon War

12-1

Post 2

Warrior’s Charge

12-1

Post 3

Improbable

5-2

Post 4

Owendale

10-1

Post 5

Market King

30-1

Post 6

Alwaysmining

8-1

Post 7

Signalman

30-1

Post 8

Bodexpress

20-1

Post 9

Everfast

50-1

Post 10

Laughing Fox

20-1

Post 11

Anothertwistafate

6-1

Post 12

Win Win Win

15-1

Post 13

Preakness Stakes 2019: Horse-By-Horse Analysis

War of Will (4-1)

  1. War of Will drew the rail again for the second leg of the Triple Crown. He was one of the horses most affected by Maximum Security altering course at the 5/16ths and although I do not think War of Will would have caught Maximum Security in the Derby, he still ran the type of race that could have won the Derby.

    The dynamics of this race, on paper, appear to be different than that in Kentucky two weeks ago and War Of Will should benefit from that. He has won races in Louisiana as mentioned previously by just sitting off the leaders and making an early move. I project many horses in this Preakness would have their best and only chance of winning my establishing the early lead. The cutback in distance and addition of speed in here should only help him. What I am looking for War of Will to do is to establish a good ground saving trip behind the horses to his outside looking to make the lead.  If he can do that, he will be left to battle Improbable in the stretch and win this Preakness. The Pick.

Bourbon War (12-1)

  1. Horse is dressed up for this Preakness, coming off of a 6 week layoff and adding blinkers. Previously, the horse entered his 3yo campaign off of a similar layoff as the Preakness and with the addition of blinkers I would hope for him to be closer early, although, it may not really matter with this speed signed on today. In the Florida Derby, he never stood a chance behind a moderate easy pace of Maximum Security. Same thing happened in the Remsen. In the Preakness, the pace should be quicker and hotly contested giving him a better opportunity. If not, hopefully the blinkers do the trick coupled with the fact that he looks a bit sharper in the mornings since April. Definitely a WIN contender at a price.

Warrior’s Charge (12-1)

  1. This horse is the innermost post position with speed. Appears as if his only chance is to make the lead and go all the way which he has done twice and won by open lengths. He broke through in his 5th start going two turns at Oaklawn following up with an entry level allowance win. He earned a healthy fig for that trip but would have to step it up even more to have a shot in here against this field, additionally bearing the burden of all this potential speed. Limit to underneath in Exotics perhaps.

Improbable (5-2, ML Favorite)

  1. It’s my contention that Improbable will be favored at post time and I think he should be favored based on his class and how this face figures to be run. He stands to sit the trip which may be necessary to win here and he has the class in this field. Cutting back to Preakness distance will only help him and speed signed on in here will help him just like War of Will. I can see a stretch battle between War of Will and Improbable, hoping to get better value with War of Will in what may be a war of wills. Use in Exotics, Potentially on Top in Exactas.

Owendale (10-1)

  1. Horse has the speed to be potentially be involved early in a stalking type position. Historically in his past performances, he bounces after a win and he has finished well behind many of these contenders. One bright note is his recent work which may indicate he is sharper for this one, if possible with his last beyer of 98. He has the best last fig in this field and coupled with his running style and latest breeze should be considered on Exotic tickets.

Market King (30-1)

  1. Outsider who is outclassed here but may figure into the pace mix early, can’t picture him being around late.

Alwaysmining (8-1)

  1. Clear speed who sets moderate fractions at best in Laurel, always heavily bet and ridden out. Can’t see it here.

Signalman (30-1)

  1. Horse looked promising as a 2yo with a nice G2 win following up a decent showing in the BC. He broke through at the Spa going 7f which was a difficult trip this past summer. He didn’t show much in his return to the races as a 3yo but did run nicely in the Blue Grass, a race that can win here. If he builds on his 2yo races and that Blue Grass he has a lot of upside and what could potentially be a huge price. Value play across the board, deep exotics for a piece.

Bodexpress (20-1)

  1. Can’t back a maiden in this field who in his only two chances had good setups and couldn’t graduate.

Everfast (50-1)

  1. Huge outsider.

Laughing Fox (20-1)

  1. Class tested closer who has done well against less, has to step it up here in Preakness to get any share at all.

Anothertwistafate (6-1)

  1. Again one of those speed horses that will have a say in the pace, will have to look to clear the field and make a run into the first turn. He could hardly do anything wrong on synthetic and has two runner up finishes in G3 races. I tend to think he has too much going against him here with his post position, inability to win on dirt, and the race dynamics here.

Win Win Win (15-1)

  1. Dressed up with addition of blinkers and hopes to break a bit better and be a bit closer but I think this outside post position will do him no favors and he will have too much to do.

2019 Preakness Stakes Picks

Approach to this race:

For Win candidates in this race I narrow it down to War of Will and Improbable. The only other horse that I would consider a Win candidate is Bourbon War. This race is not too exciting for me from a betting standpoint. I would use Improbable on top of exactas with horses that I think offer value and in with an exotics chance:

Exactas: Improbable WITH Bourbon War, Warrior’s Charge, Owendale, and Signalman

If I would be getting 7/2 - 4/1 win odds on War of Will, I would say he is worth a WIN bet. Would also play in exactas.

Exactas: War of Will WITH Bourbon War, Warrior’s Charge, Improbable, Owendale, and Signalman.

Bourbon War provides value and in my opinion is in with a chance. I’d play him to WIN and PLACE and on top of Exactas WITH War of Will and Improbable.

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About Michael Sherman

Michael Sherman is BonusSeeker's lead horseplayer pundit. He takes joy in handicapping from the Daily Horse Racing Form and picking winners since the age of eight. Michael is also a proud husband and father of two young children. His other interests include cooking and being a Dead Head.

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