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Horse Race Betting Picks At for Belmont Stakes 2019 - Saturday, June 8th
This Saturday, June 8th brings a huge day for horse bettors at Belmont Park, OTBs, and Online horse race betting sites thanks to the 151st running of the Belmont Stakes, the second of three races in the 2019 Triple Crown Series!
Belmont Stakes RACE 1 Picks: 7 Furlongs - MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $90,000
Difficult for me to strongly endorse anyone in here. Of course, Ahead of Plan (5) will be the odds on favorite and deservedly so. He is only one of two runners with any experience here. In his debut which is some time ago (horse laid off for >9months), he set fairly moderate fractions going 6f at Saratoga. He was clear past 1/16th pole and then surrendered, earning an 88 fig. He did finish well clear of the show horse who returned to win and break his maiden after a significant layoff as well. Chad Brown has done well so far this meet with horses stepping up after considerable layoffs.
Other horses that I may include on multirace tickets would be Double Orb (3), who goes for Asmussen, has a solid work tab. Asmussen is 23% with a positive ROI on firsters. Additionally, Swick (1) goes for Terranova who is winless this meet but also brings a horse here with a solid tab and extremely good ROI with limited firsters. Finally, Ill conclude with Sneakiness (7) who is the only other experienced runner in here, should benefit from addition of blinkers and with experience may negotiate a trip to beat these firsters, but still think that Ahead of Plan (5) is horse to beat.
Race 1 Picks:
Horizontal Bets: A- 5, B- 1, 3, 7
Belmont Stakes Race 2 Picks: 6 Furlongs (Inner Turf) - MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $72,000
Slightly more experienced group of maidens in Race 2 however none that I am overly anxious to make any vertical wagers on. For horizontal wagers I would focus mainly on Prisoner’s Dilemma (4) going for Clemente barn who is having a decent meeting so far. This horse is turf meant and in her turf debut she broke well and tracked a moderate pace before being caught late. She returns after some time away and should either be in a tracking position or on the lead. Andretta (9) has the most experience with more than half her starts finishing second. She found herself on the lead in her last by virtue of the pace, she tracked closely in races that went fairly quickly.
Hard to get a sense if any of the firsters who be quick out of the gate. Freudycatfever (3) has a gate work and good 5f work for Bond who is off to a good start to this meet with positive ROI for firsters. Lead Guitar (8) is another firster who may be sharp and involved early. Purchased for 200K at auction, she has several bullet works including a gate work and a more recent gate work fairly locally at Saratoga. With her Distorted Humor pedigree, she is on her preferred surface now. Tote board should tell everything we need to know about this runner.
Race 2 Picks:
Horizontal Bets: 3,4,8,9
Belmont Stakes Race 3 Picks: 1 MILE (Turf) - ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $92,000
This race I am definitely interested in wagering on. Wild Medagliad’oro (1) broke his maiden by way of stretchout after chasing a fast pace, an angle that I play often. He finds himself with pp1 and under Johnny V. I cannot say how many times this type of trip with this rider has played out favorably for me. This horse is stepping up and facing a good group of winners but this horse has early interest always. The pace scenario here would probably favor front runners and the question being Largent (6) who wired the field in his debut only to return two months later with a change in dynamic. It is interesting to note in that race that he dropped back considerably after first call however still composing himself to make a run late and narrowly miss.
One of my top selections in here and one that I hope provides value is Shooting the Breeze (2). This horse is a closer who makes his running fairly late. His March 10th race saw him gradually make his move to finish second behind a next out winner, followed that up with a race in Keeneland in which his style changed a bit, the pace was slow and he plodded along and then finished very well swinging 5 wide, finishing behind a next out winner Demerchelier who won the Graded Pennine Ridge impressively last Saturday at Belmont. I see longer races in this horse’s future but for now, this 1M race may be negotiated by this horse. Valid Point (9) is a horse going for Chad Brown like a lot of horses I’ve seen him send out this meet. Stepping up in class off of a long layoff. Would include on horizontal bets but bet against vertically.
Race 3 Picks:
Horizontal Bets: A- 1, 2 B- 6, 9
Doubles: 1, 2 WITH 3, 5
Vertical Bets: Win Bet on 1 (if >4-1),
Exacta: 1, 2/1, 2, 6
Belmont Stakes Race 4 Picks: 6 1/2 Furlongs ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $80,000
Hard to ignore what H Man (1) has done recently since going to Servis barn. I’m not sure the pace dynamics work in this 7yo gelding’s favor but it may not matter with Servis. Gets a 33% rider to boot. The Caretaker (3) is an interesting horse and what I hope would be a generous price for a horse who lost their form and returns to state bred company. This is a horse who rattled off three in a row last summer running very consistently and with varying running styles. This horse has won both on the lead and coming from off the pace. He even chased in the Hudson before trying open company allowance horses, maybe just too much for him. Looking for him to improve and has bullet work so we know he is sharp, so look for a price.
My top pick in here is Binkster (5). Yes Binkster was beaten by a few of today’s rivals in her most recent start on May 9 but that was a race which benefitted horses coming from off the pace due to the quick fractions and hard hitting early. He was involved and only faded late after having a troubled beginning. Solid work 5/30 for a trainer winning at 38%. He is also not one dimensional as he has won on the lead and rating slightly. I do not anticipate too much pace early and do not ignore his field best beyer of 97 two starts back.
Race 4 Picks:
Horizontal: A- 5 B- 1, 3
Vertical: Win Bet on 3 (if >8-1), Win Bet: 5
Exacta 3, 5/1, 3, 5, 6
Belmont Stakes Race 5 Picks: 7 Furlongs - THE BED O' ROSES INVITATIONAL. Grade III. Purse $250,000
Chalon (3) is a model of consistently stellar efforts. I like the fact that her first post BC race she won, albeit at 3/5. Normally I am weary of horses after their BC races. She is 12 for 14 ITM finishes career and she manages to negotiate her own race. Separationofpowers (7) is a Chad Brown horse I’ve always liked and look forward to playing. She impressively broke her maiden and won the Frizette as a 2yo and The Test as a 3yo in Saratoga, two premiere races on this circuit for fillies. Her other trips and even those in which she won was done so encountering trouble. My value play in here would be Mybigitalianfriend (2). Talk about horses having done nothing wrong, what has this horse done wrong? Since going over to Servis, she has level climbed consistently and with efforts that can be built upon. In any other race in allowance company she would be a prohibitive favorite. I am willing to roll the dice here and play this horse who for a lightly raced 4yo can improve and shake things up for some established veteran hitters here.
Race 5 Picks:
Horizontal: A- 3, 7, B- 2
Vertical: Win/Place bet on 2, Exacta box 2/3 ,4, 7
Belmont Stakes Race 6 Picks: 1 MILE (Turf) - ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $97,000
This is a very difficult race to get a handle on with the likely favorites leaving a lot to be desired at short prices. This is a race I am betting against these horses and looking for value. Annals of Time (10) is following the Chad Brown profile of layoff and step up in level, except this horse is away nearly two years. I’ll pass. Big Handsome (7) is winless in over two years and worse so, is fairly lightly raced with only 4 starts over two years. I’ll pass. Zapperini (11) has been racing in the Midwest and now goes to Servis barn which could prove dangerous, would include on horizontal wagers and should be involved early which may mean the difference.
The horses I am interested in here is Awesome Saturday (1) and Have At It (9). Excuse Have At It’s last two, he was off of a layoff and ran into Catholic Boy. Two back I question the type of ride he got as he is usually not involved early and finished up the track in a race that Raging Bull, a major contender on Saturday, had won. This horse is a Grade 2 turf winner at this track and 2 for 3 at Belmont negotiating differing trips along the way. Awesome Saturday is the type of horse I like to play, older horse lightly raced on turf who had class and questionable dirt form. Kimmel has finished second and third this entire meet and is 20% with the turf/dirt move with very juicy ROI. Gidu (6) if he runs will be facing older horses for first time after being away since December. Recent works suggest he is sharp but the layoff leaves me weary.
Race 6 Picks:
Horizontal: 1, 6,9,11
Vertical: Win/Place bets on 1, 9
Exacta Key Box: 1, 9/6, 11
Belmont Stakes Race 7 Picks - 5 1/2 Furlongs - THE TREMONT. Purse $150,000
Race 7: Hard to make a case for anyone other than Maven (2) who broke maiden at first ask at 2/5. Not crazy about any of the alternatives, especially Maidens. My only alternative would be Memorable (7) as a distant B. He did nothing wrong on a sloppy track with Empire Maker in the bloodlines, he broke last and got right into the mix. I look for this horse to track and pounce, he has gotten 5f well and this figures to go faster.
Race 7 Picks:
Horizontal: A – 2, B- 7
Belmont Stakes Race 8 Picks: 6 1/2 Furlongs - THE TRUE NORTH. Grade II. Purse $250,000
Excellent rendition of the True North. Based on his ability, Catalina Cruiser (3) would be an overlay at his ML of 5/2. Based on ability alone, this lightly raced 5yo won 4 in a row, included two Grade 2 races. Based on his figs alone, he should be the favorite, however, I do not like playing horses straight from BC, especially with no starts since then at this point. He will contribute to the early pace and he does not need the lead to win but fitness is a question. I am looking for a true sprinter with true sprinter speed here and Recruiting Ready (6) is the horse for me. I say he is true speed because regardless of post position or how well he breaks, you will find him within a length of the leaders regardless of the early pace.
The early pace here is somewhat questionable: not that there aren’t plenty of horses who are front running types, but how quickly will the splits be. Catalina Cruiser as mentioned earlier has to account for her 6+ month layoff. He appears fit based on his works. Stan the Man (2) is a throwaway but will prompt the pace as it is his only chance to win here, he is just not fast enough for these going sprinting distance, and I do not like the speed on the cutback. Strike Power (5), the horse immediately to Recruiting Ready’s inside ran a :44 and change half last start and :43 and change three back going today’s distance. He, however, is taking a major step up in class.
If all that wasn’t enough to like Recruiting Ready, consider this horse since he has been in Hough’s barn. I am throwing out the G3 Commonwealth where he was steadied, he ran second to Firenze Fire who will be bet in Saturday’s Met Mile and relishes Belmont, and World of Trouble who will be an odds on favorite on Saturday. Whitmore can round out exotic tickets as he is consistent enough, but may have trouble with his closing kick. Although the pace may be honest enough, I don’t love him in this spot.
Race 8 Picks:
Horizontal: A- 3, 6 B- 7, 10
Vertical: Win/Place Bet on 6
Exacta Key Box: 6/3, 7
Trifecta: 6/3, 7/3, 4, 7,8,10
Belmont Stakes Race 9 Picks 1/4 MILES (Inner Turf) - THE NEW YORK. Grade II. Purse $600,000
Holy Helena (1) breaking from the rail certainly is a classy mare. She is 7/16 lifetime and 75% ITM finishes. She has talent and tactical speed and her inside pp should help her save ground around both turns while establishing a good running position. She would be on my horizontal tickets however she is not consistent enough on the front end. Competitionofideas (6) is a lightly raced filly who has a lot of talent no doubt. It took her a little while to break through but once she did she rattled off a few wins before winning a G1 in California at this distance. The problem is she did that from off the pace and I do not see a ton of early speed in here which can put her behind the eight ball. She also spots several in this field some class and experience in longer turf races. She will also be an underlay and not worth the value at 5/2 or even 3/1.
The other Chad Brown horse, Homerique (8) will need to run back to July 28 race last year in France and not be pace compromised. She may have enough talent to overcome that. I am intrigued by some price horses as well. I would be interested in playing around with some price horses here. One of them would be Giant Zinger (3). This horse upon stretching out and moving up into graded stakes company had to deal with off goings on the turf. The turf should be firm for Friday’s races and with her new found speed after stretching out to more of marathon distance she naturally made the lead. Slight cutback may normally hurt her chances to repeat her front running style but with the lack of pace in here she could step up with a firm turf and be dangerous on the front end at a price.
Another horse I would be interested in at a price would be Lady Montdore (4). I would expect an aggressive ride from Kendrick putting this horse in a good position. This is the kind of race where I would let the tote board dictate who I am playing as I do not want a short priced Competitionofideas (6) or Homerique (8).