Horse Racing Picks For Belmont Park On Saturday, May 11

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Horse Race Betting Picks At Belmont Park Race Track For Saturday, May 11

This Saturday, May 11 brings us a big day for horseplayers. There are four stakes races to look forward to at Belmont Park. Keep in mind, weather could play a factor on Saturday, but here are my horse racing picks.

The following article is by long-time horseplaying enthusiast Michael Sherman. Michael has been involved with horse racing for over 25 years. You can follow Michael on Twitter @msherman85

RACE 1: 6 1/2 Furlongs (1:142) THE VAGRANCY HANDICAP. Grade III. Purse $200,000

Interesting 5 horse race here for a G3 at Belmont. There are surprisingly cases to be made for most of these horses as well as a lot of questions to ask yourself in evaluating this race. First question is the pace scenario with not much speed signed on for a 6.5 furlong affair. From a speed front running perspective, Heavenhasmynikki (2) at sprinting distances has been near or on the lead often enough, however I question the races she is coming out of at these tracks in the Midwest. Pacific Gale from the rail and cutting back slightly is Grade 3 placed and has been involved early in some races with a very honest and fast pace. Her recent beyers this year are significantly better so perhaps she is a different horse and I like the fact that she is within a length of the pace in these races which will suit her here. She has also been working very well in the mornings and should be sharp here for these. I look for her to outrun the 2 early and put her away.

The questions being, can she hold off Dawn The Destroyer (3) who likes to make an extending run, running down horses, albeit against better, but this is not a great field. She needs to run back to the trip on 11.29 with Castellano up in which she closed and won going away, putting away a next out winner in Katherine the Wise. She did that in a race with pretty moderate fractions going 7f and should not have much pace to run into here. She was well beaten by Pacific Gale on 4/5 and these race dynamics don’t appear to be in her favor. Separationofpowers (4) makes her return to the races for Chad Brown after almost 8 months away. She is a multiple Grade 1 winner with wins at 6f, 7f, and 8f. She has won on the front end, slightly stalking, and with more of a closing run. I tend to want to give her a race as she has not run well off her latest time away after the test which is not as long as she is away here. In her first race after BC with significant time away she may have lost all chance at the start and was outrun through a :44 half already behind by 9 lengths.

• Pick 5 Tickets: A – 1, B – 4
• Selections: 1-4-3

RACE 2: 1 MILE (1:321) MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $80,000

Skywriting (3) improved significantly in his second start. This $425K sold at auction caught a sealed track for his stretch out to today’s distance which saw him track a no doubt winner. I look for him to improve even more second time going long. Principled (6) has been training for his return for the races with Pletcher whose horses were not going in Saratoga. This horse in stretching out and with his current morning works of 5f could have a chance of setting the pace here. I prefer his chances on an off track. I look at this as a two horse race though, even if Lion Dance stays in.

• Pick 5 Tickets: 3, 6
• Selections: 3-6-1, 6-3-1 if off track

RACE 3: 6 Furlongs (Inner Turf). (1:063) ALLOWANCE. Purse $82,000

It is difficult to know where to go in this race which will be competitive whether it is on the grass or not. Miss Mystique (2) had some new life in her with the surface chance recently. She satisfied her SB NW2X condition at today’s trip and distance at 34-1 earning her career beyer. She followed that up in open company with a similar trip but coming up empty. Back to her winner rider, she has some time away and may have some gate issue getting out on the rail but worth a look at what figures to be a price. I do not know how to figure pace in this race, my assumption is that horses cutting back are going to attempt to make the lead however we have cutback horses that will run these girls down at this sprinting distance.

The horse I think stands to benefit the most is Purageous Dyna (7) who lacked the closing kick going long and should catch faster fractions which to close into here. Jimi Bags (9) and Science Fiction (10) figure to have something to say about the pace, I just don’t see them around at the end at this distance. Enthusiastic Gal (8) also figures to benefit from the pace scenario, who only missed last time by a head after making the lead in stretch in what may have been a premature move. Turf rider upgrade gives this 7yo mare the leg up here.

• Pick 5 Tickets: A: 2, 7, and 8 B: 9, 10
• Selections: 8-7-2

RACE 4: 1 1/8 MILES (1:452) THE PETER PAN. Grade III. Purse $300,000

Intrepid Heart (1) began his career going two turns, wiring the field at Oaklawn by over 7 going away. He matured in his second start, rallying and passing horses going two turns at Keenland, time and fig improved. Cutting back to one turn should be no issue for this versatile horse facing a suspect field. Federal Case (2) can improve stretching out to this long one turn race, she has been close enough in sprints to make some noise early here. Global Campaign (3) is speed cutting back, not sure if that helps him here.

• Pick 5 Tickets: A – 1; B – 2, 3
• Selections: 1-3-2

RACE 5: 1 1/16 MILES (Turf). (1:382) MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $41,000

Quality Choice (3) with Irad could be your potential speed horse in here. Over less than ideal turf courses he has been involved early if he breaks well and I like his pp here coupled with the fact that there is really no speed signed on. With no trouble, he is close early.  Upset at a price. Crypto Gold is the logical choice for me in here. He has races this year in MSW class that almost got him to graduate. This is class relief, even though he is coming from Tampa and Clemente has horses well placed here in NY. Needs some hitting though. Rhode Island is hard to ignore on the cutback and drop, but may be pace compromised as well at a short price.

• Pick 5 Tickets: 3,6,10
• Sections: 10-3-6

RACE 6: 7 Furlongs (1:194) CLAIMING. Purse $65,000

I would be interested to see how Have Another (1) fares over a dry Belmont surface at this distance. He has run well recently catching off tracks and having run on the turf. This horse is 2/4 at 7F and 2/5 with 5 ITM finishes at Belmont. He is coming around to form and cycling at the right time and at the right level. What I am having trouble with is determining how he plays into how the race is run Beyers are consistent low 80s and can improve. All positive class moves here. Felix in Fabula is class tested here as many of these are dropping down, I don’t care for a horse who has gotten this done at the 25K level who may be pace compromised here.

Seethisquick (5) projects to have some say in the early pace. Three back in alw company, the horse broke second and wired the field going 6f overcoming a stumble. His two subsequent starts saw him chase behind a more ferocious pace before tailing off. Drop should help for sure with no other pace signed on. Going the extra eighth may help too. Still Kranz (6) and Lazarus Project (7) figure to sit outside of Seethisquick and hope to move. I would hope that Have Another just remains in the clear.

• Pick 5 Tickets: A – 1, 5 B – 4, 6, and 7
• Selections: 5-1-4

RACE 7: 1 1/16 MILES (Inner Turf). (1:384) THE BEAUGAY. Grade III. Purse $200,000

Competitionofideas (3) is a head shy of going 3/3 at this trip on Belmont turf. He has additionally won at different trips along the way. He broke his turn maiden win by 8 lengths beating two next out winners. Clearly the horse to beat, his versatility leave him without being pace compromised here. These shippers prefer softer ground and longer trips. Chipolata (1) figures to further benefit from the cutback while having a good sustained close last time out.

• Pick 5: A – 3, B – 1
• Selections: 3-1

RACE 8: 1 1/16 MILES (Turf). (1:382) MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $80,000

Wide open MSW here in Race 8. The favorite will most likely be Varenka (3) who is G2 placed in the Ms. Grillo finishing behind Newspaperofrecord, the top 2yo turf horse. This is her first start of the new year as a 3yo after a 5th place finish in BC. Horse is training on synthetic and would prefer to give a race. Funny Flowers (2) breaking from the rail is a firster who appears as if she may make some noise at a price. The breeding suggests that she is well meant and placed for her debut. She worked the turf in the morning at Prairie Meadows and had some good breezes in conjunction with gate works when shipping to Belmont prepping for here. Tagg should have her ready at a price. Structural Deficit (4) is the kind of horse where I would allow the tote to dictate what to do. If she opens <9/2 she is live. Come Storming (6) showed speed first time out when in for a tag, has had two troubled trips since and now returns off of a layoff. She has turf pedigree on the Dam side in Dynaformer and is turf meant.

Lido Key (11) is a horse I am very much interested in for Contessa. She was away almost 9 months before making her turf and 4yo debut, outrunning her nearly 50-1 odds. She broke from pp1 and chased inside under cover and kept on running. She, in my opinion, had a worse trip for the Aqu turf that the horse to her outside, Romantic Pursuit (12) who was at least wide with a clear run. Lido Key stands to improve even more, second time going long and on the turf for a trainer who is 4/16 with a positive ROI with this layoff. I like 3yo second off a layoff and this horse’s last work indicate that she is sharp for this one.  With her troubled trip and questionable pace here, she is my selection to make her own race.

• Pick 5: 2, 3, 4, 7, and 11
• Sections: 11-2-7

RACE 9: 6 Furlongs (1:073) THE RUNHAPPY. Purse $150,000

Skyler’s Scramjet (2) breaks well in nearly all his starts and yet not even half the time he is in the lead at first call. I have to think that the move to Maragh is to almost sure up that this horse will make the lead or be a tracking second, except, in the context of this race, I would want to be on the lead. The horse is training sharp, two bullets since his last race under this jock in which he was a game second to World of Trouble who trampled next out. The runner to his inside has shown speed vs. less and he should get the jump on these. Firenze Fire (3) is a horse I don’t want sprinting. He is the type of horse where shortening up does not help his closing kick as he has more sustained runs to finish a race. Killybegs Captain (4) normally doesn’t break on top and is taking a big step forward here. Which brings us to Recruiting Ready (5). This horse is versatile and can either go with Skyler’s Scramjet or sit second and make a move. Should be interesting race but I’m limiting to these two, slight edge to Skyler’s Scramjet.

• Pick 5: 2, 5
• Selections: 2-5-6

RACE 10: 1 3/8 MILES (Inner Turf). (2:101) THE MAN O’ WAR. Grade I. Purse $700,000

Magic Wand (5) is Group 2 winner, Group 1 and Grade 1 placed here against the boys, lone female in this race is also one of the lone horses who has showed the propensity to sit close early. She has done more of this in France and Ireland than she has done here. She followed up her BC try with a very respectable second to Bricks and Mortar who came back to win impressively recently. She shipped to Dubai for a shot at the $6M purse but her back races and what could be a walk on the front end are the main reasons for backing her. Zulu Alpha is the plodder, sweeping move type in this field, usually the type of trip that wins at this longer distance. She moved up too quickly on a yielding course last time out at Keenland but he probably also needed a race like he did after his last layoff. He can make his own race and should have a good early position heading into first turn under Castellano. Epical (7) woke up recently and has been making the lead, albeit against small and suspect fields, in with upset chance to be around later. Kulin Rock (9) has also found new life since trying longer distances, in with upset chance.

• Pick 5 Tickets: A – 2, 5; B – 7, 9
• Selections: 5-2-7-9

RACE 11: 6 Furlongs (Turf). (1:05 ?) MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $62,000

Have to like the looks of Elektronic and Qian B C, both out of the same race which went slightly faster than the race later that day. However, the dynamics of the 9th race on 4/18 were different. This race saw the pace go very fast early with Noble Cause (5) off by less than a length. He was caught wide and lost some ground but found back nonetheless. Elektronic has more upside than Qian B C, who I feel with his recent work may try to make the lead however this horse does not break well, ever. Wicked Grin for Clemente needs to develop and have some maturity but the speed is there and he is sharp.

• Pick 5 Tickets: 4, 5, and 8
• Selections: 5-8-4

Multirace Exotics: Early Pick 5

• Early Pick 5: “A” Ticket {1/3, 6/2, 7, 8/1/3, 6, 10} – 18 bets
• Early Pick 5: Major “A” Ticket {4/3, 6/2, 7, 8/1/3, 6, 10} – 18 bets
• Early Pick 5: Major “A” Ticket {1/3, 6/9, 10/1/3, 6, 10} – 12 bets
• Early Pick 5: Major “A” Ticket {1/3, 6/2, 7, 8/2, 3/3, 6, 10} – 36 bets
• Doubles/Pick 3 Focus – Center tickets around these horses:
  • Race 4: 1
  • Race 7: 3

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