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The final leg of the Triple Crown in this year 2020 will be the Preakness Stakes. Normally run on the third Saturday in May, two weeks after the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness finds itself in this unprecedented year, 4 weeks after the Derby and 5 weeks prior to the Breeders Cup.

The Preakness is run at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore and is scheduled for Saturday, October 3, 2020. It will go as Race 11 on a 12-race card at Pimlico at its traditional distance of 1 3/16 mi. Post time for the Preakness is 5:36 P.M. EDT.

This year’s Preakness includes 11 horses, including Authentic who won the Kentucky Derby on September 5. Authentic is the 9-5 morning-line favorite. Let’s take a look at the odds, handicap the race, and make some predictions.

2020 Preakness Stakes Odds And Post Positions

The latest odds, as well as postpositions for the 2020 Preakness, are as follows:

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Preakness Stakes 2020 Predictions

This year’s Preakness features an 11-horse field and in my opinion, this race comes up stronger and more competitive than the Derby or Belmont earlier in the series.

Authentic is the 9-5 morning line favorite and rightfully so. He ran a very impressive Derby, setting the pace and digging in when needed to get home in the stretch, with Tiz the Law, the odds on favorite chasing him the entire race. I bet Authentic that day and had the correct order of finish in my bets, but I tend the Derby came up a much different race that favored the running style of Authentic. In this Preakness, I project the pace to be fast and contested.

My objective in handicapping this Preakness is to determine the probable pace scenario and determine where the perfect trip will come from. I do not believe the pace scenario favors the frontrunners here for several reasons.

First, there are more horses entered to run here in the Preakness who have a preferred running style of being on or near the lead. What can typically happen in a race like this is that the horses may contest for the lead and weaken late, due to distance or conditioning issues. Which is what brings me to my next point, conditioning. Most of the potential pacesetters have been heavily raced considering the circumstances this year. I am cautious of horses that are heavily raced who are need the lead types. Let’s find us a horse to sit a good trip and pounce in the stretch.

Preakness Stakes Handicapping

The most dangerous frontrunner type in this race for me is Art Collector (3). He is 4/4 this year with a combined margin a victory of almost 15 lengths beating large fields. He is NOT a need the lead type, in fact on two of his five career victories have come on the lead. He is consistent and versatile, but this may be a class test for him. Did not run in the Derby due to injury, he did win a Grade 2 in which he beat Swiss Skydiver (4), one of today’s rivals and the only filly in the field. His triple-digit beyers cannot be ignored and he has the speed to gun it early, being on the inside may force that issue however more so than he may prefer. For these reasons, I think it’s important to look for some value and not take too short of a price on Art Collector.

Authentic (9) on the other hand has been a one-dimensional horse. He is a need the lead type who has never won a race using a different tactic and running style. I also feel that this field is better top to bottom than that in the Derby and if he does make the lead he will be tested and given no relief. Given this being his 5th race in less than 4 months, Authentic, will be a pass for me.

I project Swiss Skydiver (4) and Thousand Words (5) to have a say in the pace, and if nothing else, make trouble for the frontrunners, either Art Collector or Authentic. NY Traffic may also be in the fray contesting for the lead in hopes of stealing or creating their own chance in here, which will probably be futile against some seriously fast horses.

Mr. Big News (2) and Max Player (8) are two closers whom I feel have a real good chance here. Starting with the latter, he is a lightly raced horse who just happens to run in the most prestigious races this year and against some of the best horses. He broke his maiden last winter and followed that up with a win in the Withers at the Big A. On that day he was able to close under a less than ideal pace scenario. He went away for several months and returned for the Triple Crown trail with a good third in the Stakes. Let’s not forget that he will be the only horse to run in every race of this series as well as a good third in the Travers. He made up ground in the Derby as well in a race in which hardly any horses made up ground. He will have the pace in front of him today and I think he can run a huge race at a nice price.

Mr. Big News (2) has a more favorable post position although I do not think he is the horse Max Player is, he may benefit from his post position in relation to the potential speed horses and work a ground-saving trip.

Preakness Stakes Prediction

My pace projection is that Art Collector and Authentic will vie for the lead into the first turn, with Authentic sitting right off him. If other horses go, mainly Swiss Skydiver or Thousand Words, Art Collector being in close proximity may take back just a bit and take more of a stalking trip. Authentic may not have the benefit to determine how this will shake out, but it won’t matter, Authentic, in my opinion, is too one dimensional for the race dynamics as they may unfold. Art Collector has a tactical advantage and will likely finish in-the-money. I would like to take a stab with both Mr. Big News and Max Player to either be able to pass Art Collector in the stretch or at least close for second.

Exacta Box: 3 With 2 and 8

Win/Place: 8

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