The National Football League preseason is officially underway, and we have arrived at the AFC South in our series of NFL over under wins predictions.
With the 2019 NFL schedule closing in, bettors are busy on various New Jersey sports gambling sites checking lines and placing bets for a variety of futures markets in time for Week 1. Included in these markets is NFL Season Win Totals, which requires bettors to predict over or under on a number of wins across the 16-game schedule. These wagers have gained popularity over time as they, along with other futures markets, provide a season-long rooting interest that goes far beyond just one game.
After providing some season win totals NFL betting tips, we'll detail the AFC South and make some predictions on the 2019 season.
Football Handicapping Tips For NFL Season Win Totals
Making selections on NFL season win totals isn't quite the same as going above or below a total for a single football game. The idea of an over/under is the same, but the way you go about researching for these bets are totally different when it's one team's entire schedule affecting the wager. Keep the following in mind when deciding which football teams to bet on or against:
- Strength Of Schedule: Common sense tells us that totaling more wins is an easier feat with a lower strength of schedule. It's important to know who the team you're considering is playing and where (home or away), along with where the easiest and toughest parts of the schedule are. When it comes to NFL over under picks, however, oddsmakers' lines oftentimes account for the difficulty of the schedule. Use it as an informational tool, but don't make wagers off of schedule alone.
- Line Movement: Understanding how the line moves is extremely important, whether you're Week 1 betting or making a futures wager. Be aware of where it started, where it is, and shop around the sports betting sites in NJ for the most profitable odds. Using multiple apps will also give you the best line possible. Many NFL over under wins bets are made by fans of a particular team looking for an extra reason to cheer on their squad. This makes overs open to lines coming with some juice. By keeping an eye on the line across several sites and trying not to let fandom cloud your judgment, you can find value.
- Keep A Separate Bankroll: Some bettors write off these types of bets altogether because it ties up money for long periods of time. Don't let your desire to gamble week-to-week keep you from making futures wagers like NFL season win totals. Come up with your weekly budget, but keep a separate tab for long-term wagers. They provide a rooting interest for a much longer period and can open up chances to profit later on by hedging our doubling up on specific games, depending on how the season plays out.
- Personnel And Coaching Changes: Every football team is impacted in the offseason when it loses some players and adds others. Sometimes, a head coach or coordinator is replaced and it can lead to an entirely new system on that side of the ball. Changes to the roster, staff and base offense/defense of the team you're looking to gamble on are vital. These learning tactics should be applied to each team on its schedule as well in an effort to find value in the NFL prop odds.
It's time for BonusSeeker to continue our NFL season win totals series with DraftKings Sportsbook odds from what we expect to be a pretty competitive division, the AFC South!
NFL Over/Under Wins: AFC South Predictions
The entire football-watching world was sent into a bit of shock when Colts quarterback abruptly announced his retirement at age 29 due to a series of injuries over the course of the past several years. All sportsbooks including DraftKigns were forced to adjust their lines for both season win totals and divisions.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, Houston jumped from +275 to the favorite at +125 while the Jaguars dropped to +250 and the Titans to +375. Sudden, Indianapolis has the longshot odds to win the AFC South at +500 with Jacoby Brissett under center after being favorites at -112 not so long ago.
The AFC South clubs draw two challenging divisions in the AFC West and NFC South on the schedule, ranking all four teams in the top 10 in terms of strength of schedule going into the season. The new dynamic of the division would say that Houston now holds the inside track and we would be worth a plus-money bet even at a lesser value, but don’t fully sleep on Indianapolis at +500.
Indianapolis Colts - Over 6.5 Wins (-121), Under 6.5 Wins (+100)
The Colts return much of the same team that got hot at the right time and won 10 games on its way to the postseason in Frank Reich's first year as head coach but have lost Andrew Luck in stunning fashion to an injury-related retirement. The total has dropped from 9.5 wins all the way to 6.5 wins because of it, with Jacoby Brissett slated to take over under center as Week 1 approaches.
A healthy Luck made Indianapolis one of the most fearsome groups in the entire conference, bringing back 21 of 22 starters (now 20). The team still possesses a young, ahead-of-scheduled defense and one of the best offensive lines in football after years of ineptitude filling that position. With T.Y. Hilton, Marlon Mack and Eric Ebron serving as weapons once again in Reich's offense, Indianapolis was slated to be dangerous on offense. How much will change with Brissett throwing the ball? Apparently, three fewer wins will take place, according to oddsmakers.
We would caution bettors to not overlook the rest of a roster that won the division last year and has some playoff experience under its belt. Brissett is a competent playmaker and the strong roster around him helps make seven wins a definite possibility. The trouble comes with the opposing offenses on the schedule, specifically on the road. The Colts play the Steelers, Chiefs, Chargers and Saints in addition to its AFC South foes. Getting to seven wins will require a couple of wins on the road that aren't as likely as they were with Luck playing quarterback. But with a severely reduced number at improved odds, take Brissett and the Colts to get there.
Pick: Colts Over 6.5 Wins (-121)
Houston Texans - Over 8.5 Wins (-150), Under 8.5 Wins (+123)
After winning the 2018 division title with 11 wins, oddsmakers seem to expect regression from Houston. This season, the total is a full 2.5 games below last season's total at DraftKings Sportsbook. To us, this is one of the easiest NFL over under wins predictions there is going into the 2019 season.
This team being allowed to regress by two games and still hit the over is what makes it especially appealing. We loved it at +110 before Indianapolis lost Andrew Luck and we still like it with the reduced value now. DeShaun Watson and De'Andre Hopkins managed to put up huge numbers a season ago behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. With just a small amount of improvement on the line and the addition of a pass-catching back like Duke Johnson to step in for the recently-injured Lamar Miller, Houston should be able to put up points once again to pair with a top-10 defense.
A top-five schedule that starts tough isn't ideal for those looking to feel comfortable in a season-long bet, especially when the Saints, Chiefs and Patriots appear. Still, we think Houston winds up at nine behind what should be a top-10 offense. The Colts are no longer the best team in the division without Luck and the Texans are stronger than both Tennessee and Jacksonville, teams which oddsmakers are mistakenly ranking as nearly the same as Houston. If you didn't make your NFL betting pick on the over 8.5 with Houston and get the plus-money before, feel safe doing it at -150 now.
Pick: Texans Over 8.5 Wins (-150)
Jacksonville Jaguars - Over 8 Wins (-125), Under 8 Wins (+104)
Jacksonville made some huge changes in the offseason in an attempt to turn the page following a disappointing 2018 season. The Jags failed to deliver on huge expectations after nearly going tot he Super Bowl, and now the oddsmakers' view is that this is about a .500 team with the NFL season win total set at eight.
Super Bowl-winning quarterback Nick Foles was brought in to replace the struggling Blake Bortles and Leonard Fournette is healthy and primed for a rebound season, so why can't this team go at least 9-7 and regain its old form?
The issue is that the problems could go deeper than just Bortles, who gets most of the blame dumped at his feet. Trouble on the offensive line and a lack of resources at the receiver position didn't help the cause, and Jacksonville lost three key starters (Barry Church, Malik Jackson and Tashaun Gipson) from a top-five scoring defense as well. Not enough was done to replace those pieces for this team to dominate as it did two years ago, and with the third-ranked schedule in the league, we say this is closer to an under bet.
The home schedule is more difficult than the road schedule, which could be seen as a positive, but we still think this is a .500 team at best in the AFC South, which at worst is a push here. We liked the under at -125 before the Luck retirement, and still like it as the value has increased to +104 now due to being unsure this team is even better than Indianapolis with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback.
Pick: Jaguars Under 8 Wins (+104)
Tennessee Titans - Over 8 Wins (+115), Under 8 Wins (-118)
Tennessee impressed at times and was just one win from the playoffs a season ago, but will they be able to build on that? Following the Andrew Luck retirement saga, Tennessee's odds shifted from +115 to -104 to go over the eight-win mark, but they're still favored at -118 to go under.
On paper, this team should compete. Running back Derrick Henry broke out last season and tight end Delanie Walker is returning at full health this season to compliment weapons like Adam Humphries and Corey Davis. Now consider the defense allowed the third-fewest points in the league a season ago and didn't lose any of its core coming into 2019 under second-year coach Mike Vrabel.
With all of that, oddsmakers at DraftKings only predict a .500 season for Tennessee. One could argue the schedule got easier for but wins could be hard to come by for the Titans. This team needed a four-game winning streak against bad teams late last season to erase a 5-7 mark after 12 games and put itself into playoff contention. To us, winning six or seven games by the Week 11 bye isn't likely, so we are going under for the Titans' NFL season win total at am improved number, even if they can steal one from the Colts.
Pick: Titans Under 8 Wins (-118)