2019 Home Run Derby Odds & Predictions Using Advanced Statistics

2019 Home Run Derby Odds & Predictions Using Advanced Statistics

This first part of this piece was written by Brian Sausa @BrianSausa and the predictions section was written by Rich Migliorisi @Rich_Migs.

Updated 7/7/19 at 9:30am due to the Christian Yelich being replaced by Matt Chapman.

The Major League Baseball season may be reaching the All-Star break, but that doesn’t mean the betting stops at the best NJ sportsbooks in the Garden State. With the 2019 Home Run Derby followed by the All-Star Game on tap to take place in Cleveland, platforms like FanDuel Sportsbook have plenty of odds available for bettors to choose from while they wait for the regular season to resume. You can catch the Home Run Derby at 8pm on Monday, July 8.

Now that sports betting in New Jersey has reached a fever pitch, sportsbooks are expected to have a wider range of bets and see even more action than last year. 

2019 Home Run Derby Participants

Here are the participants in the All-Star Game Home Run Derby:

  • Matt Chapman (RHB) - Oakland Athletics
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (RHB) - Toronto Blue Jays
  • Joc Pederson (LHB) - Los Angeles Dodgers
  • Ronald Acuna (RHB) - Atlanta Braves
  • Alex Bregman (RHB) - Houston Astros
  • Carlos Santana (Switch-Hitter) - Cleveland Indians
  • Peter Alonso (RHB) - New York Mets
  • Josh Bell (Switch-Hitter) - Pittsburgh Pirates

2019 Home Run Derby Bracket

Now let’s take a look at the Home Run Derby Bracket.

Bracket A:

  • Matt Chapman (1) vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (8)
  • Alex Bregman (4) vs. Joc Pederson (5)

Bracket B:

  • Peter Alonso (2) vs. Carlos Santana (7)
  • Josh Bell (3) vs. Ronald Acuna Jr. (6)

2019 Home Run Derby Odds

  • Josh Bell +350
  • Pete Alonso +450
  • Vlad Guerrero Jr +450
  • Joc Pederson +700
  • Alex Bregman +850
  • Matt Chapman +850
  • Carlos Santana +950
  • Ronald Acuna Jr +950

As you can see, some of the top sluggers in the game converge at Progressive Field with the sole purpose of leaving the yard as many times as possible. When we look at the odds below, sports bettors have a chance to walk away huge winners by selecting the correct participant on an MLB futures odds bet. Below is a full list of 2019 Home Run Derby participants and each player’s odds on the FanDuel Sportsbook app.

Previous Home Run Derby Odds With Christian Yelich:2019 Home Run Derby Odds At FanDuelThe original favorite was the current Major-League home run leader, Christian Yelich, but with his absence, Josh Bell is now the favorite on FanDuel at +350. Pittsburgh’s Josh Bell changed both his swing and his approach at the plate, leading to 26 first-half home runs and a spot in the competition with the second-lowest odds at +400. Due to the ballpark’s configuration in Cleveland, if Bell opts to bat from the left side, it may play into his favor come Monday night. Mets sensation Pete Alonso has already set the club record for homers as a rookie with 28 and comes with some robust +500 odds to win the derby in his first Major League season. Just behind him is rookie phenom Vlad Guerrero Jr., who has only eight long balls, but all the necessary power to pull through at +600 odds in the Home Run Derby. 

2019 Home Run Derby Predictions Using Advanced Stats

The following has been written by Richard Migliorisi @Rich_Migs. Rich was a fantasy baseball writer in his past life and was nominated for Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year in 2013. He used analytics to determine fantasy baseball strategy and find player trends.

Let’s be honest, making MLB picks for the 2019 Home Run Derby can be tough. Each of these players has the ability to go on a roll and crush the baseball. But if we are looking to gain an edge and find some potential Home Run Derby picks, we can take a look at some fairly simple advanced statistics to help light the way. The chart below is provided by FanGraphs.

One thing to take into account is realizing that Progressive Field has a 20-foot wall in left field. According to a 2013 study done by Mathalicious, the average home run to left field reached a maximum height of about 81 feet and traveled 378 feet. Left-center field is 370 at progressive with a 20-foot wall. If you hit in down the left-field line, which is 325 feet, you should be able to clear the fence. But things start to become a little more unlear as your progress (pun!) toward the 370-foot mark:

Average Home Run Distance And Height 2013

In red is the left-field wall at Progressive Field. That arch is an average home run in 2013. As you can see, the ball will safely clear the 325-foot wall, but as you progress toward 370 feet, things get a little more uncertain. This could potentially hurt righties, specifically pull-heavy, right-handed batters:

Take note of the pull and center percentages, the fly ball and line drive percentages and the medium and hard hit percentages of each participant. 

Home Run Derby First-Round Predictions

Peter Alonso (2) vs. Carlos Santana (7)

I’m sure Peter Alonso will hit his fair share of home runs, but that 20-foot wall in left field could come into play for the pull-heavy righty. Alonso has been pulling the ball 46.4% of the time and has only gone the other way 18.3%. I expect Santana to hit from the left side, and though it is tough for someone to go against Peter Alonso’s mammoth power, I’m going with the surprise upset and hometown favorite. Winner: Santana

Alex Bregman (4) vs. Joc Pederson (5)

Joc Pederson and Alex Bregman will be facing off, and not only do both have strong pull percentages, as Joc oulls the ball 48.5% of the time and Bregman does so at a 43.4% clip. Bregman hits more fly balls at 45.4%, while Joc hits fly balls at a 40.5% rate. The key difference? Joc Pederson doesn’t have to deal with that 20-foot wall in left. Winner: Pederson

Josh Bell (3) vs. Ronald Acuna Jr. (6)

Josh Bell vs. Ronald Acuna Jr. should be a fun matchup, but again, Bell’s ability to bat lefty may be the difference here. Acuna also has a high line drive percentage (26.3%,) which may cause some issues when trying to clear, you guessed it, that left-field wall. Winner: Bell

Matt Chapman (1) vs. Vladimir Guerror Jr. (8)

Matt Chapman has replaced Christian Yelich, and it is well-deserved. Chapman is an amazing all-around ballplayer when you take into account his ridiculous defense. Chapman did state he plans to go left-center, which is a concern, but with strong hit rates and the ability to put the ball in the air, we are going to stick with the slick-fielding third baseman to get past Vladi Jr. But to be fair, any of these guys can light it up and move on to the second round. Winner: Chapman

Home Run Derby Second-Round Predictions

Matt Chapman (1) vs. Joc Pederson (5)

Much like Yelich, Chapman will be a tough out, but I am going with the lefty and I expect Pederson pull the ball toward right field consistently. Winner: Pederson

Josh Bell (3) vs. Carlos Santana (7)

Bell going up again Santana is a tough one to predict. The numbers are very similar and this is just a Home Run Derby after all. It is practically batting practice. But if we are going to make a decision here, let’s base it off of line drive percentage (edge to Santana,) home-field cooking and the fact that Carlos Santana is +950. It’s the Home Run Derby, let’s have some fun. Winner: Santana

Home Run Derby Final Round Prediction

Joc Pederson (5) vs. Carlos Santana (7)

You know what’s great about the Home Run Derby? It is split into two brackets, so you can bet on both of these players to take home the crown, which is what I would do if I was going to place a wager. 

Pederson is +700 and Santana is +950. Those are great prices for what is essentially a glorified batting practice for some of the best hitters in the world. Anyone can win, but we tried to look for an edge using some fairly simple advanced statistics.

Since we don’t have to choose a winner because we bet on both, we get to just kick our feet up and relax. But if you did want to just choose one guy to roll with, I am picking Joc Pederson and his pull-heavy, fly-ball driven, lefty swing to win the Home Run Derby crown.

Home Run Derby Winner: Joc Pederson

Profile Pic.
About Rich Migliorisi

Rich is the Managing Editor at BonusSeeker.com. He started his career as a video editor and poker player but decided to pursue sports writing. In 2013, Rich was nominated by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association for Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year. He worked at MLB Advanced Media as a Senior Site Manager for MLB.com and NHL.com before joining BonusSeeker.

MLB, NHL, The Fantasy Fix, Video Editor, Poker Player

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