Welcome to the introductory installment of our NFL over under wins predictions series featuring the AFC East division!
With many fans and bettors impatiently waiting for fall and the United States' most popular sport to return, many of the best online sportsbooks in New Jersey are offering lines for a wide range of futures markets to be wagered on throughout the summer. Among them is 2019 NFL season win totals, which allows players to select above or below a certain amount of victories for each football team in the league. Some people don't want to pour over an entire week's worth of games prior to each Sunday, and that's where futures bets of this type come in. These NFL over-under wagers are extremely popular as a bet that provides a rooting interest throughout the course of the entire regular season beyond just one game or week in particular.
Football Handicapping Tips For NFL Season Win Totals
NFL over-unders are among the first things covered when learning how to bet on sports, and those same rules can be easily applied to understand odds on football win totals throughout an entire season. The differences from normal game-by-game totals betting and wagering on NFL futures are the extra strategic tactics that go into covering so many games at once. When looking to make NFL season win totals predictions, keep track of the following things:
- Strength Of Schedule: Playing against stronger teams always makes it tougher to string together wins over the course of a season. Don't only go by last season's schedule, either. Teams get better or worse every summer, so don't hesitate to dive into the future schedule to properly analyze opponents as best you can.
- How The Public Plays It: Find some value by shopping for each team you're interested in and seeing where the total and odds lie at multiple sportsbooks before betting. The public action on these types of bets tends to be fans of teams betting on the over, which inflates totals just like it does on a day-to-day basis in sports gambling.
- Separate Funds For NFL Season Win Totals: Because this money is tied up for an entire season, some may go cheap to make sure they have more available for day-to-day wagers. One should have nothing to do with the other, so we would advise you to establish a separate bankroll and even lay more down on season-long bets you're comfortable with, especially since thee payouts aren't huge. Sure, it locks up more money for an extended period of time, but why make a wager that's going to last months and then be frugal about it?
- Offseason Changes: Research additions and subtractions to both sides of the ball as well as any potential coaching changes, which will impact the system played. Some teams could have new coordinators or different rosters than you thought, so don't skip this step.
- Depth Charts: The starting units aren't the only important parts to a football team, especially over the course of a season. Injuries happen and depth is always a key ingredient for a successful team.
Below, we are breaking down NFL season win totals with odds from FanDuel Sportsbook and making some football betting predictions for one of our favorite futures markets!
NFL Over/Under Wins: AFC East Predictions
According to NFL strength of schedule, the four AFC East teams have favorable draws. No team ranks higher than 18th and the other three clubs are among the 10 easiest schedules, going by opponent winning percentage in 2018. The schedule matches up with the NFC East and AFC North, two divisions completely up for grabs coming into 2019. But is that the case in the AFC East? Oddsmakers say that New England, which has won every division crown since 2009 and 15 of the last 16 overall do it at least one more time. On FanDuel, the Patriots are -550 to win the AFC East, with the Jets holding the next closest odds at +650.
New England Patriots - Over 11 Wins (-130), Under 11 Wins (+110)
Before the Patriots marched to yet another Super Bowl title, they went 11-5 en route to their most recent AFC East win. New England had won at least 12 games in every season since 2010 before last season, and with a schedule tied for 27th most difficult in the league, we like their chances to win a dozen games again.
Normally, results over the last decade or more wouldn't matter much at all, but the well-oiled machine that is that Patriots is unlike other teams and has earned some blind confidence here. New England has owned the AFC East and won at least five games in the division the past three seasons and has much of the same roster that just won the Super Bowl minus Rob Gronkowski. The rest of the teams aren't ready to topple the Belichick-Brady regime just yet, and that makes up six of the 16 games. The Jets and Bills could be improved, but Miami is rebuilding and any of the three will have its hands full taking a game from the Pats.
With another 5-1 record (or even 4-2), it's going to be hard to imagine the Patriots not at least reaching 11 to push the number. The FanDuel line is at -130, although there could be slightly better odds at some of the other best NJ sportsbooks.
Pick: Patriots Over 11 Wins (-130)
New York Jets - Over 7 Wins (-160), Under 7 Wins (+135)
The Jets are hardly the same team it was when 2018 finished, and the football betting lines are starting to show it. After going 4-12, New York now has an NFL over under wins total set at seven following additions on both sides of the ball and a new coach taking over.
A well-rested Le'Veon Bell and linebacker C.J. Mosely highlight the new faces along with head coach Adam Gase, who should help the maturation process of second-year QB Sam Darnold. From a gambling perspective, the schedule isn't too tough and the Jets are much improved, both of which have caused action on Gang Green surpassing seven wins. The juice has risen to -160, but perhaps that price only needs to be paid if you're worried at landing at 7-9 exactly.
There are reasons to be optimistic about this group going into the 2019 NFL season, so if you think the Jets are definitely a .500 team or better, a 7.5 win total at -110 odds can be found at other sites like DraftKings and that value needs to be attacked. In football, however, there are so few games that every win is important and we'd actually recommend paying the more hefty price with New York right at seven wins to leave open the chance of a push. Besides, the price you pay only matters if you lose and eight wins is still a mighty big jump from four.
Pick: Jets Over 7 Wins (-160)
Buffalo Bills - Over 6.5 Wins (-186), Under 6.5 Wins (+155)
Buffalo surprisingly went 6-10 and turned some heads, so getting one more victory for this NFL season win totals wager feels like a logical next step. The Bills have a second-year quarterback in Jose Allen to be excited about and have added players like Cole Beasley, John Brown and Frank Gore alongside a revamped offensive line. They have one of those ‘easier' schedules that the entire division has been blessed with, although it still features road games at Dallas and Pittsburgh along with the customary two against New England and four against Miami and the Jets.
The issue is that Buffalo punched above its weight last season, and while the additions are solid, they don't move the needle enough. We agree with oddsmakers that New York is taking over as the No. 2 in that division, making it tougher for the Bills to emerge from AFC East play with a .500 mark and seven wins total. The recommendation is to take a shot with under 6.5 wins at +155, the best price available. From a value standpoint, the Bills aren't at a level where -186 can be laid on them, even just to reach seven wins.
Pick: Bills Under 6.5 Wins (+155)
Miami Dolphins - Over 4.5 Wins (-150), Under 4.5 Wins (+125)
Miami is a popular football team currently in rebuilding mode, and it opens up some value for us to jump on the under with plus-money at FanDuel. The Dolphins actually have the toughest strength of schedule in the AFC East at No. 18 in the league and are likely to have a long season, which informs out under selection at +125.
The Dolphins open the season with four of seven games they will play against 2018 playoff participants and have other tough road games at Pittsburgh and against the Giants after sticking around the NY area for two full weeks. Some of the softer spots on the draw are divisional matchups with the Bills or Jets, which are notoriously difficult in their own right.
New coach Brian Flores takes over a team without many improvements across the roster, albeit he's got two new quarterbacks in Josh Rosen and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Miami isn't going to compete for this division, and in reality, doesn't want to win many games when a high draft pick could be so much more valuable in the long run. On DraftKings, you can go under five wins for Miami at the same -150 number to be safe, or even get some actual value on the over if you think we're off base.
Pick: Dolphins Under 4.5 Wins (+125)
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