With the 2019 NFL season fast approaching, the NFL over under wins prediction tour expands to the AFC West!
Anticipation for the National Football League to kick off is reaching a fever pitch as bettors in New Jersey and all over the United States look to online sports betting platforms for futures odds. Sites like DraftKings offer a wide range of NFL futures markets going into the season including NFL season win totals, a wager that is an over/under pick on a number of wins fro the entire 16-game schedule. These bets are popular among football fans because it provides a gambling interest in a team's season beyond just one week or game and helps stretch your investment a bit.
We'll go through some NFL betting tips, then look at each club in the AFC West and make some picks on each team's win total.
Football Handicapping Tips For NFL Over Under Wins
Making season-long wagers aren't like gambling week-to-week and require some different tactics since it covers such a long period of time. Before making NFL over under wins predictions, be aware of the following things:
- Strength Of Schedule: It stands to reason that a more difficult schedule will make it tough to reach higher win totals but there are several factors to consider when it comes to the schedule in addition to how it rates out based on opponent win-loss records from a season ago. Where does the draw get easier/more difficult? What are the road/home matchups? Oddsmakers take these things into account, but knowing the team you're looking at and the other teams on its schedule intimately can help you find value once the public skews the line.
- How The Line Moves: Line movement is vital when it comes to making any type of sports wager, and NFL over under wins predictions are no different. Know where your line started so you can tell which way it's trending based on the public. It will help to shop around the best sports betting sites in NJ to find the most profitable odds possible, so having accounts on multiple platforms may be a wise move.
- Fandom Can Cloud Judgement: Plenty of NFL season win totals wagers are made by fans of a certain team who want an extra reason to cheer on the squad they root for every week. The juice that comes with overs can be inflated because of this, causing those lines to lose value. Don't take your favorite team just because you want them to eclipse their total, and try to locate lines with less value do to public or fan support.
- Separate Bankroll For Futures: Too many people don't take advantage of valuable futures markets because they want to bet every game, every week without money being tied up for long stretches of time. Consider starting up an entirely new bankroll for futures bets like these going into the season. Desire to gamble week-to-week shouldn't affect making season-long bets, which can also lead to some profits via hedging or doubling up later in the season.
- Coaching And Roster Changes: Updates to coaching staff and personnel happen every offseason in the NFL. It's important to know which players are gone, which have arrived, and the same with the coaches. New leadership could mean entirely new systems, which can change the dynamic of a team one way or the other. Apply these tactics too other teams on the schedule as well to find value where perhaps oddsmakers left an opening.
Now, we move on to making NFL over under wins predictions for each team in the AFC West!
NFL Over/Under Wins: AFC West Predictions
As far as oddsmakers are concerned, this is a two-team race between the Chiefs and Chargers (+180). Both look to build on 12-4 records a season ago, although they managed to do it in different ways. Los Angeles' attack started with Melvin Gordon on the ground, while Kansas City's explosiveness begins with MVP quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Sitting behind the leaders are the Broncos (+1200) and Raiders (+1400) more than likely battling it out for third place. This division has some of the toughest strength of schedules in football featuring matchups with the NFC North and AFC South.
Kansas City Chiefs - Over 10 Wins (-155), Under 10 Wins (+128)
The Chiefs' season came to a close after a division title and an appearance in the AFC championship game, which they almost won. Oddsmakers have Kansas City behind only New England as favorites to reach Super Bowl LIV, but first Mahomes and Andy Reid's offense will need to try and replicate what it did a season ago.
We'll admit 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns won't be easily matched, but Pro Bowl tight end Travis Kelce is expected to be good to go by Week 1, which will be of some help. Kansas City's revamped defense has some key additions like safety Tyrann Mathieu and should be improved on top of the fortune of having a pretty soft away schedule early on.
Despite the defensive shortcomings, the team went 12-4 and dominated most of the AFC, showing that a competent unit paired with Reid's dynamic offense can spell major trouble. The Chiefs went 7-1 on its home field and 5-1 in the division en route to 12 wins and even a minor slip to 11 victories wins this bet. With the Chargers not even at full strength and the other two teams in the AFC West not even close to Kansas City's level, the right NFL over under wins prediction for this team is over 10 even with the value where it is.
Pick: Chiefs Over 10 Wins (-155)
Los Angeles Chargers - Over 9.5 Wins (-134), Under 8.5 Wins (+110)
The Chargers didn't lose a single major piece on either side of the ball and actually made additions in free agency and the draft, especially on defense. On paper, this team that won 12 games last season should definitely get to 10, right? We certainly think so.
It doesn't help that star running back Melvin Gordon is sitting out with hopes of getting a new contract, but Philip Rivers still has weapons in place. Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson give the Chargers some comfort in the event Gordon is out while Keenan Allen and Mike Williams remain on the outside in one of the more efficient offenses in the NFL. Gordon makes this NFL over under wins prediction a lock at over 9.5, but we still are siding with Anthony Lynn's team to not take a huge step backward assuming Rivers remains healthy.
Los Angeles is not only above many AFC teams talent-wise, but it also has the benefit of playing the weakest schedule in the division and might even be able to keep pace with the Chiefs if all goes well. After going 7-1 on the road last season, the draw has plenty of changes for the Chargers to collect wins away from home once again including at Detroit, Miami, Tennessee and Jacksonville.
Pick: Chargers Over 9.5 Wins (-134)
Denver Broncos - Over 6.5 Wins (-137), Under 6.5 Wins (+112)
The new-look Broncos feature Vic Fangio as head coach and Joe Flacco as starting quarterback as the page is turned from the Case Keenum-Vance Joseph era following a lackluster 6-10 season. With the line set at 6.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook, are the Broncos going over or under their win total?
Denver won six games last season and features major upgrades coming into 2019. In addition to Flacco, the Broncos have a new offensive coordinator looking to turn around the 24th-ranked scoring offense from a season ago. While the outside weapons may be thin, Philip Lindsay and Royce Freeman are a strong duo in the backfield behind a beefed-up offensive line. The team also now has a bolstered defensive backfield featuring Kareem Jackson and Fangio, a well-known defensive mastermind.
The Broncos do have an extremely difficult schedule that's ranked No. 2 according to 2018 win-loss record, but there will be chances to steal wins against teams like Oakland, Buffalo, Detroit, Tennessee and Jacksonville outside of the division.
Pick: Broncos Over 6.5 Wins (-137)
Oakland Raiders - Over 6 Wins (-110), Under 6 Wins (-110)
The Raiders acquired all-world receiver Antonio Brown in the offseason and are looking to make some serious noise in Jon Gruden's second season as head coach after going 4-12 in 2018. He tried shoring up the offensive line a bit and added linebacking help to a struggling defense. But will it be enough to get Oakland over six wins in 2019?
Taking into account the schedule and the number of holes this team needs to fill, we say go below the NFL over under wins prediction. Only three teams got their QB sacked more than the Raiders, and not enough help was added across the offensive line to completely reverse that trend since they added some pieces and lost others. Add in the fact that Brown sustained a bit of a freak injury to his feet and is not currently practicing in a drama-filled training camp. First-round safety Jonathan Abrams helps in the defensive backfield, but this was the worst pass defense unit in the league last season with few additions to it.
Between all the new faces and Brown possibly not being at 100 percent with his feet to begin the season, it's hard to see Oakland getting on a roll while playing what might amount to the toughest schedule in the league. Bank on 6-10 for a push for 5-11 for a win by going under the Raiders' season total.
Pick: Raiders Under 6 Wins (-110)