National Football League training camp is underway, and we are ready to preview the NFC North and make NFL over under wins predictions ahead of the 2019 season!
reminding fans and bettors all over the United States that the most popular sport in the country is almost back as preseason games are underway, and before we know it, it will be time for Week 1. As the summer progresses, more and more sports betting operators are offering odds for a variety of NFL futures markets with eligibility lasting until the opening kickoff of the season. Included in the wide-ranging futures betting landscape are 2019 NFL season win totals, which requires bettors to select over or under a set amount of victories for each team over the course of the entire 16-game schedule. NFL season win totals wagers are extremely popular as bets that provide a rooting interest throughout the course of the entire regular season beyond just one game or week in particular.
After providing some season win totals NFL betting tips, we'll detail the NFC North and make some picks on the 2019 season.
Football Handicapping Tips For NFL Season Win Totals
Picking NFL over unders for the entire season works the same way wagering on the total of a single game does. The differences aren't in the rules but in the tactics taken in trying to cover an entire team's schedule as opposed to just one contest. When looking to make predictions for NFL season win totals, keep the following in mind:
- How Strong Is The Schedule?: This doesn't mean merely checking a team's strength of schedule, which is determined by opponent 2018 win-loss record, and then making NFL futures bets. While plenty of clubs don't appear too different than they were a season ago, you need to brush up on how they reached their ultimate record and whether you can see the trend sticking or changing going into this season. Dig deep to review not only the team you're considering and its own schedule, but also look at some opponent schedules and mull over the divisions that club is facing, and when.
- Line Movement: In addition to your own research, track movement (if there is any) and locate value by shopping around among the best NJ sportsbooks for the most advantageous number. Just like a normal single-game moneyline, the odds on NFL season win totals are likely to adust due to public and sharp action. It's also very common for these wagers to come directly from football fans looking for some additional reason to cheer on their own team, so overs tend to be inflated. By keeping an eye on the line across multiple platforms and keeping your fandom out of the equation, you can find better odds.
- Separate Funds For NFL Over Under Wins: Too many bettors skip football futures bets like NFL season win totals because it eats up too much of the gambling budget for months on end. Our response would be to separate money for season-long wagers from your weekly budget and treat it as two entirely different entities, which they are in many ways. Your desire to bet week-to-week shouldn't affect how you see teams performing from the beginning. There's no need to forego gambling on potentially profitable markets or deprive yourself of a season-long rooting interest, just budget for it.
- Changes To Rosters/Depth Charts/Staff: Perhaps the most important things to be aware of are offseason updates to the roster and coaching staff. There are generally more people shifting in and out for franchises than you realize at first, so make sure you understand that team's depth chart and playing style. The starting units aren't all need to look at when it comes to personnel, either, especially over the course of a season. Injuries are inevitable and some teams are more equipped to handle that than others due to depth, which can impact your bet on a team's NFL over under wins total.
It's time for BonusSeeker to continue our NFL season win totals series with FanDuel Sportsbook odds from what we expect to be one of the more competitive divisions, the NFC North!
NFL Over/Under Wins: NFC North Predictions
The Bears were a double doink away from reaching the divisional playoffs, but the successful season led to Chicago being a slight +175 favorite to repeat as NFC North champs after going 12-4 in 2018. The Packers are right there at +185 and Minnesota makes it a three-horse race at +220 with the Lions a robust +1100, which probably isn't high enough. No other division has three teams so close from an odds perspective to start the season, which makes the NFC North an interesting one. The group appears to have pretty tough overall schedules as well, including all four clubs playing the NFC East and AFC West.
Chicago Bears - Over 9.5 Wins (+120), Under 9.5 Wins (-140)
Isn't every day that a playoff team doesn't lose many pieces, but is still projected for over two full wins less than the previous season. Going by NFL strength of schedule, it makes some sense as the odds-on NFC North favorites have the toughest road of any team in the division and are tied for the fifth-hardest draw of any NFL club. Chicago managed 12 wins and the NFC North crown a season ago, aided by a 7-1 home record that will be hard to replicate while welcoming in non-divisional opponents like New Orleans, Kansas City, the LA Chargers and Dallas.
The Bears return nearly all of the vaunted Khalil Mack-led defense, which ranked No. 1 in opponent scoring and top-three in yards allowed per play in 2018. This is also year two under Matt Nagy's versatile offense with QB Mitch Trubisky entering his third season following massive steps and a Pro Bowl berth last season. Even if the Bears don't dominate as they did a season ago, a serviceable offense to compliment an elite defense is a recipe for double-digit wins and an over on the NFL season win totals pick. Take the over and the value as the Bears cash in at +120 on FanDuel.
Pick: Bears Over 9.5 Wins (+120)
Minnesota Vikings - Over 9 Wins (-120), Under 9 Wins (+100)
The Vikings looked like a playoff team on paper last season, too, but ultimately fell short of expectations and finished 8-7-1. Will things be different this time around? Oddsmakers say it's likely, with Minnesota being led by an elite defense that ranked top five in points allowed and yards per play in 2018.
We say, however, consider the under on this NFL over under bet. Among the things that are worrisome about Minnesota are the road venues it must visit, including Kansas City, Dallas, Seattle and Los Angeles (Chargers) in addition to Lambeau Field and Soldier Field in the division. After going 3-5 away from home, this team needs one or two more wins on the road to reach double digits. With this slate, it won't be easy, especially if the Vikings' holes aren't filled. Namely, the offensive line.
Minnesota paid Kirk Cousins a ton of money, then got frugal when it came to protecting him. Though efforts in that area have come this offseason, we aren't sure it's enough to make the Vikings a more well-rounded offense in 2019. If you do like Minnesota to surpass nine wins, consider a +220 wager at FanDuel to win the division as well. It's very possible that a 10-win Vikings team gets a home game in the playoffs as opposed to traveling, but we are taking the value and going under.
Pick: Vikings Under 9 Wins (+100)
Green Bay Packers - Over 9 Wins (-150), Under 9 Wins (+125)
The Packers are one of the few football teams that have been seemingly impervious to change over the past decade or so, but not anymore. Matt LaFleur has taken over for Mike McCarthy and installed a brand-new offense, much to the delight of a now-healthy Aaron Rodgers.
The Packers' overall schedule is ranked middle-of-the-road but is riddled with challenges the first half of the season, out-of-division matchups at Dallas, Kansas City and Los Angeles (Chargers). After a brutal 1-7 mark away from Lambeau Field last season, Green Bay likely needs four or five road victories to reach double digits for the season.
Green Bay's offensive talent featuring Rodgers, Davante Adams, and upstarts Geronimo Allison and Marquez Valdez-Scantling has never been a question, but its ability to stay healthy and the defense have been major ones. After significant defensive upgrades this offseason with two edge rushers and safety Adrian Amos coming over, the Packers look like a team ready to compete for the NFC North again.
We say Green Bay is actually a step ahead of Minnesota and almost on par with Chicago. The value on this one isn't the best, but an injury-free Aaron Rodgers, new leadership and a renovated defense should get this team over .500 at the very least.
Pick: Packers Over 9 Wins (-150)
Detroit Lions - Over 6.5 Wins (-130), Under 6.5 Wins (+110)
The Lions went 6-10 last season as the struggles were spread across all units. Matt Stafford had one of the worst seasons of his career while the defense faltered despite defensive guru Matt Patricia taking over coaching duties. After focusing on defense in free agency, the Lions should be improved on that side of the ball in the second year under Patricia.
That doesn't make this team an attractive bet at this price, though. Detroit not only has a new offensive scheme, but it also has fewer weapons on that side of the ball compared to its NFC North counterparts. The Lions aren't worlds behind the rest of the division in terms of talent, but they do have more glaring holes and challenging first few weeks could bury Detroit before it gets a chance to make any noise (I say they're 1-5 by Week 7). We like the plus-money on a 6-10 or worse season for the last of our NFL over under picks.
Pick: Lions Under 6.5 Wins (+110)
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