If you're a fan of a team in the NFC South and are in the market for some NFL over under wins predictions you've come to the right place.
The National Football League is the most popular professional sports body in the United States from a viewership and gambling standpoint. So naturally, with the pro football preseason is getting into full swing, anticipation for the upcoming year is reaching its peak among fans and bettors alike.
Because online NFL betting is much more convenient and enjoyable than in-person wagering, those looking to gamble on the NFL in the Garden State are going straight to sports betting sites in New Jersey as kickoff nears. Platforms like FanDuel are offering a wide range of futures betting markets leading up to Week 1, including NFL season win totals, which requires selecting over or under on a predetermined number of wins across the entire 16-game draw. These are popular categories as markets that can offer a rooting interest far beyond just one game or week, stretching your investment an entire season's length.
After breaking down some NFL betting tips, we'll dig into the NFC South and make some predictions on each team's win total.
Football Handicapping Tips For NFL Over Under Wins
Researching for a season-long wager like NFL over under wins predictions is unlike preparing to make a conventional single-game bet from the Week 1 schedule. Keep the following things in mind when taking a more large-scale approach on futures bets:
- Strength Of Schedule: For each team you're considering, you need to take a look at several factors involving the schedule. Get to know the home and away games and where the easy/difficult stretches might be. It's logical to assume a difficult schedule will make it more difficult to rack up wins, but oddsmakers do take all of this into account before setting the line. So use the schedule as a guide of sorts, but don't base your NFL over under wins predictions solely on it.
- How The Line Moves: Line movement is the most important thing to look at when trying to determine how much value a given bet has. That's the same for any type bet across nearly any market. Be aware of where your line started and which direction it is trending to help you decide if it's smart to pounce or to wait it out. Shopping around among the best NJ sportsbooks will help you find the most profitable odds possible, so having accounts on multiple apps could be worthwhile.
- Don't Let Fandom Cloud Your Judgement: Many of these NFL over under win predictions are made by fans that are excited about the season ahead and looking for extra incentive to cheer on the specific team they root for every week. That means the juice that comes with over can be inflated, so line movement is important here as well. Keep your fandom out of it, and you'll be on the road to getting value.
- Keep A Separate Bankroll: Don't shy away from season-long bets like NFL win totals because you're worried about gambling week-to-week. Keep the two things entirely separate if possible, to the point of establishing a separate bankroll for futures bets. Budget a certain amount for season-long wagers, but still make them. They come with a rooting interest for a longer period and can open up chances to profit later on by hedging our doubling up, depending on how the season plays out.
- Personnel And Coaching Changes: Coaching and personnel changes impact every football team in the offseason. Be aware of any meaningful changes to not only the roster and staff but the system as a whole. These learning tactics should be applied to each team on its schedule as well in an effort to find value in the NFL prop odds.
It's time for BonusSeeker to continue our NFL season win totals series with FanDuel Sportsbook odds from what we expect to be a pretty competitive division, the NFC South!
NFL Over/Under Wins: NFC South Predictions
According to odds from FanDuel, the Saints are the favorites to win the NFC South once again at -170. The Falcons have the next-lowest odds at +320 while the Panthers are a profitable +600 and Tampa Bay pulls up the rear at +1000. In reality, this is a two-team race between New Orleans in Atlanta, so make your divisional bets wisely. On the 2019 NFL schedule, the four teams in the NFC South are set to take on the AFC East and NFC West.
We all remember the way last season ended for the Saints in the NFC championship game, but can the reigning NFC South champions rebound with another 11-5 (or better) campaign to go over the NFL over under wins total?
Oddsmakers at FanDuel Sportsbook have set the mark at 10.5 after New Orleans went 13-3 in the regular season. While that 2.5-game drop does seem fishy at first, the Saints don't play an overly-difficult schedule and are still the best team in its division. With Alvin Kamara in the backfield and Michael Thomas and Jared Cook among others catching balls from future Hall-of-Famer Drew Brees, this team has one of the scariest offenses in the league once again.
The reason why this team can win 11 games again isn't merely because of its offense, though. New Orleans' young defense emerged as an above-average unit, no longer forcing Brees to turn every game into a shootout. One thing to be wary of is a difficult road schedule, especially at the start, since this team isn't going 7-1 away from home again. Still, so long as they protect their aging quarterback, New Orleans' offense combined with a much-improved defense should be ready for another NFC South as they go over their total.
Pick: Saints Over 10.5 Wins (+110)
Atlanta Falcons - Over 8.5 Wins (-135), Under 8.5 Wins (+115)
With losing streaks of three and five throughout the 2018 season, things got ugly for the Atlanta Falcons before a hot streak landed a 7-9 finish. Oddsmakers feel they are due for a rebound of sports with a total set at 8.5 at FanDuel.
For the Falcons, upgrades along the offensive line are supposed to jump-start the resurgence. Led by Matt Ryan and Julio Jones and a dynamic backfield, the offense is still one of the stronger units in the league and some protection from the quarterback should erase many of the scoring issues we saw from Atlanta last season. Will it be enough to cover up for a defense that allowed 30+ points on six different occasions last season? Who knows.
On paper, the Falcons are an over .500 team and this over is a winner. Last season, however, made it a bit harder to trust them. They have an extremely tough draw before the bye week, and that doesn't even include playing New Orleans. Out of a lack of trust for the bottom two teams in the NFC South, though, we will take a shot on Atlanta rebounding to perform a bit like the roster talent says it should.
Pick: Falcons Over 8.5 Wins (-135)
Carolina Panthers - Over 7.5 Wins (-160), Under 7.5 Wins (+125)
The Panthers are looking to rebound after one of the more disappointing campaigns in the league a season ago. Following a 6-2 start, an injury to quarterback Cam Newton sparked a 1-7 slide down the stretch as the team released a sure-fire playoff spot and finished 7-9. Oddsmakers set the mark at eight wins, but it has been bet down to 7.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Because this team didn't make too many offseason additions, much of how 2019 turns out for the Panthers seems to rely on Newton. He had offseason shoulder surgery and it's unknown exactly when he'll be able to get under center for Carolina. Even if he is ready to begin the season, it's unlikely Newton is back to his old self within the first few weeks.
The shame for Carolina is that the schedule actually has some winnable games at the start, but nearly every game from about Week 10 on poses a huge challenge. Because of Cam's injury, the Panthers may not be equipped to stockpile wins in the part of the schedule that would allow them to do that. Because of it, we think this year has another 7-9 record written all over it.
Pick: Panthers Under 7.5 Wins (+125)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Over 6.5 Wins (-110), Under 6.5 Wins (-110)
The Buccaneers made huge changes to the coaching staff in the offseason as Bruce Arians takes over and Todd Bowles came to run the defense, as the two did together in Arizona some years ago. The hope is that Bowles can fix the worst-ranked DVOA defense (efficiency-measuring stat) while Arians turns Jameis Winston into what Tampa expected when he was selected No. 1 overall.
Winston is playing for a contract, so he should be better and there is plenty of offensive talent starting with Mike Evans on the outside. Still, even an improved quarterback situation may not make up for the issues on the other side of the ball. There aren't many big additions to the second-worst scoring defense from last year, a unit which also tallied the second-most penalty yardage. Sure, they added Ndamukong Suh but also cut Gerald McCoy in the process, so they aren't any better. Is the presence of a new staff enough to turn it around without many new players?
This team would need two additional wins from last year's 5-11 mark, but the schedule is just too stiff for that. Combined with the question marks surrounding this team, we say under 6.5 sounds right.
Pick: Bucs Under 6.5 Wins (-110)