We've reached the final installment of our NFL over under wins prediction series, and it's all come down to the NFC West division!
There isn't a more popular sport to gamble on in the United States than football and no professional body with more fans than the National Football League. With another season on the horizon, the busiest time of the sports betting year is about to commence.
Online NFL betting is far more convenient and enjoyable than placing wagers in-person, so many of those looking to gamble on the NFL in New Jersey are going straight to sports betting sites as Week 1 gets closer. Platforms like FanDuel offer a huge variety of futures markets leading up to the start of the season, including NFL season win totals. These bets continue growing in popularity with each passing season and require selecting over or under a number of wins across the entire 16-game schedule. This category is appealing to bettors in many cases because it offers great value and a rooting interest far beyond just one game or week, stretching your investment an entire season's length.
After providing some NFL betting tips, we'll dig into the NFC West and make some predictions on each team's win total.
Football Handicapping Tips For NFL Over Under Wins
Preparing to make season-long bets like NFL over under wins predictions comes with some different tactics than gambling on a weekly schedule. Keep the following things in mind when researching for the entire season before making futures bets:
- Strength Of Schedule: Begin by learning the schedule of the team you're considering, including the home/away draw and the spots where it gets difficult or lightens up a bit. Logically, having an easier schedule would lead to more wins, but basing picks off last season's win total (how strength of schedule is determined) isn't always a perfect strategy. Teams with tougher schedules can still go over the number and usually provide more value, but your research is vital. Altogether, use the schedule as a guide of sorts but don't base your NFL over under wins predictions solely on it.
- How The Line Moves: Tracking line movement is the way to identify value and in many cases see which side of the line sharp bettors are on. Know where your line started compared to where it is so you can see which way it's trending. Shopping around among the best NJ sportsbooks will help you find the lines with the highest payout, so having multiple accounts helps. Some odds on the over in this market could be inflated due to fans looking for an extra reason to cheer on their team, so keep that in mind as well.
- Set Money Aside For NFL Over Under Wins Predictions: Some bettors don't get involved in futures bets in general because they think it cuts into their funds by tying up money for long periods of time. The way to combat this is by coming up with a separate budget for these markets even if your bankroll isn't huge. NFL season win totals can also create profits later in the season when betting on weekly games.
- Personnel And Coaching Changes: The makeup of teams from a roster perspective changes every offseason, and the same goes for the coaching staff. It's important to know of any major changes to the roster or staff along with the base offensive and defensive systems. This should be done to analyze the opponents of the team you're considering as well.
It's time for BonusSeeker to continue our NFL season win totals series with DraftKings Sportsbook odds from what we expect to be a pretty competitive division, the NFC West!
NFL Over/Under Wins: NFC West Predictions
Fresh off a 13-win season and a trip to the Super Bowl, the Los Angeles Rams have won the division in both years under Sean McVay, amassing and a 24-8 record in the regular season. Oddsmakers like them to three-peat, with FanDuel Sportsbook setting the line at -185.
Seattle has finished in second place each of the last two seasons is second at a strong +290 number. The 49ers will pay five times your investment at +500 while the Cardinals have seemingly astronomical +2500 odds to take the NFC West. This should mostly be a two-horse race between Los Angeles and Seattle, with all four teams taking on the AFC North and NFC South.
Los Angeles Rams - Over 10.5 Wins (+125), Under 10.5 Wins (-150)
After last season, it'd be too easy to assume the Rams are destined for another season of at least 11 wins. An NFL over under wins prediction isn't as easy to make at this number as it seems and the Rams are a candidate for regression after lighting the league on fire last season, but an over bet is in the cards for a team that can slip by two games and still win the wager at plus-money.
Los Angeles lost key pieces on both sides of the ball, most importantly the offensive line. Regression in that area could affect the productivity of Jared Goff, even if he is surrounded by the likes of Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods and a returning Cooper Kupp. With just average protection, however, the Rams' offense is loaded with weapons for Goff to spread the ball around to. Mystery still surrounds Todd Gurley's knee, although the team seems confident in rookie Darrell Henderson in the event the star running back isn't at full strength.
After going a combined 13-3 on the road in the past two seasons, the Rams face a tough schedule but don't have an incredibly difficult draw away from home. Keeping Goff out of the cold weather in December is big, as most of the tougher games late in the year (Seattle, Baltimore and Chicago) are all in Southern California.
Pick: Rams Over 10.5 Wins (+125)
Seattle Seahawks - Over 8.5 Wins (-135), Under 8.5 Wins (+115)
Some regression was expected in Seattle prior to the 2018 season, making this team a popular candidate for the under, and the Seahawks flipped that script rather easily. After posting 10 wins and going back to the playoffs, the NFL over under wins prediction total is down to 8.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook, and we're convinced that's a bit too low.
Russell Wilson may not have many big-name receivers, but it didn't stop him from throwing 35 touchdowns to just seven interceptions. Ten of those scores and nearly 1,000 passing yards went to Tyler Lockett, who is back to lead the receiving corps once again. Wilson's ability inside and especially outside of the pocket makes this offense go, and help on the line should protect the Pro Bowl QB enough for him to continue making plays. Seattle's defense is trying to cope with the losses of Frank Clark and Earl Thomas, but the team was +15 in turnover differential a season ago, and even a slight dropoff isn't going to turn this unit into an issue that costs too many games.
Seattle has a tough stretch following the Week 11 bye, but the overall schedule ranks 25th based on 2018 opponent win-loss and CenturyLink Field is still not a place teams can easily win a game. To us, a 6-4 record going into the bye should amount to another winning season featuring nine or more wins. Take this one with confidence as Seattle goes over .500 once again and could be worth a flier at profitable odds to win the NFC West.
Pick: Seahawks Over 8.5 Wins (-135)
San Francisco 49ers - Over 8 Wins (-125), Under 8 Wins (+105)
The San Francisco 49ers are an interesting test case, and another difficult team to make an NFL over under wins prediction on. The number is set right at eight wins after 4-12 regular season, but will a new-look defense and health under center reverse fortunes in the bay under Kyle Shanahan?
The re-vamped front seven features pieces like Kwon Alexander and Dee Ford in addition to first-round pick Nick Bosa, so the fifth-worst scoring defense in the NFL is due to perform better even if they aren't one of the top units in the league. The problem for us is that Jimmy Garoppolo has yet to play a full season as a starting quarterback, but the betting public seems to be enamored with the offense playing well in Shanahan's offense.
With weapons like George Kittle, Dante Pettis and a collection of talented running backs, it's entirely possible this 49ers offense looks like the one many are expecting. At the same time, Jimmy G's first full season could also produce less-than-ideal results, especially at the start. San Francisco's most winnable stretch comes in the first half, as the last six weeks all present huge challenges and wins may be tough to come by. With the Rams and Seattle looking like the two best teams in this division, it will be tough for the Niners to get over .500, but eight wins really aren't too many to ask for
Pick: 49ers Over 8 Wins (-125)
Arizona Cardinals - Over 5 Wins (-120), Under 5 Wins (+105)
The Arizona Cardinals have undergone a bit of an overhaul. An air-raid offensive guru, Kliff Kingsbury has taken over as head coach and the team drafted quarterback Kyler Murray with the top pick in the draft to be the face of the franchise. The team also got busy acquiring veteran talent via the trade market and free agency.
By all indications, this offense is looking to play fast and put up points, which will be a great change of pace from winning just three games with the slowest and last-effective scoring offense in the NFL.
The defense is upgraded at the coordinator role with Vance Joseph and on the field with the likes of Terrell Suggs and Jordan Hicks but will suffer from the loss of Patrick Peterson for the first six games due to suspension. Arizona needs least some immediate results from Murray along with a rebound season from running back David Johnson so its offense can help cover up for its shorthanded defense.
The Cardinals still may not win a ton of football games with a rookie coach and QB, but the good news for this wager is that they don't need to win much in order to cash in. Considering Arizona's schedule, an over bet on this NFL season win total is one of our favorites in this market. This team could be fun to watch and fun to root for, and six wins will wind up being reachable.
Pick: Cardinals Over 5 Wins (-120)