2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks | Predictions For Bay Hill

2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks | Predictions For Bay Hill

The golf season continues its Florida swing with a trip to Bay Hill and we're following the action with 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational betting picks!

We're making our way toward the best part of the PGA Tour schedule and the excitement is reflected at online sportsbooks in New Jersey and many other states. Each week, sites offer a wide range of golf betting markets, both before the event begins and over the course of its duration between Thursday and Sunday.

The public has a huge interest in betting on golf and it at Arnie's Place this coming week. Many of the best players in the world will be in the field for this one, and it is the final event before the season really gets going at THE PLAYERS Championship. So let's get to the Arnold Palmer Invitational betting preview.

2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational Tips - Golf Betting Strategy

This tournament has been played at the legendary Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge since 1979 and undergone multiple title changes, but the event has shared Palmer's name since 2007.

In recent years, we've seen several high-ranking players take home the trophy (and that sweet red cardigan) including Tyrell Hatton, Fancrasco Molinari, Rory McIlroy, Marc Leishamn, and Jason Day. In the past, Tiger Woods has won this event eight times and most recently went back-to-back in 2012 and 2013.

Bay Hill measures at a lengthy 7,454 yards of mostly Bermudagrass and scores as a Par 72. There are plenty of weeks on the PGA Tour when the course, comparatively speaking, is an easy one for the best players in the world. That is not the case this week, as Bay Hill is known for being challenging and rates as one of tougher courses on tour.

Here are some stats to consider when making Arnold Palmer Invitational betting picks:

  • Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
  • SG: Approach
  • Greens In Regulation Percentage
  • Birdie Or Better Percentage
  • Par 5 Scoring Average

For more tips and information on how to wager on PGA Tour events, visit our golf betting strategies guide!

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2021 Bay Hill Picks | Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds, Predictions

Using our key stats for Bay Hill, we know we're looking for players who have the combination of accuracy and length.

The course is pretty wide open but will penalize players for missing fairways since the rough is even less forgiving than the normal tour venue. Anyone who consistently hits fairways and greens at Bay Hill will be at a huge advantage, as will those who are adept at hitting out of the rough from longer distances.

This is also one of the lowest green in regulation courses on tour and players who give themselves birdie opportunities especially on Par 5s, are also ones to consider. *All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, March 1*

  • Rory McIlroy To Win (+900 at DraftKings), Top 10 Finish (+110)

As he is each and every week, McIlroy is one of the favorites. In fact, he's the odds-on favorite at most sites and even though that's a tough spot to win from, we're still looking his way. The 2018 champion of this event has come in the top 10 four times out of the six events he's played at Bay Hill, and it's all come in the last four seasons.

McIlroy ranks second in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee this season and led the field in Par 5 scoring in last year's tournament. Despite not winning yet this year, Rory has played well enough to be around on Sunday almost every week. He's crushed the Florida swing in the past and we think he's a good bet at Arnie's Place this year.

  • Sungjae Im To Win (+2500 at DraftKings), Top 20 Finish (+125)

Sungjae Im is doing something this season that he hasn't previously in his brief career: take some time off. He rested for a month shortly after finishing T-2nd at The Masters, and he just took a couple of weeks off before the Florida swing.

Sungjae seems to play some of his best golf in the Sunshine State, as he's finished in solo 3rd place on both occasions he's played at Bay Hill. Im is an excellent all-around player but he's elite off the tee. If he finds himself in fairways than many of his counterparts, his aggressive approach style could pay off in a big way.

At these odds, Sungjae is worth a bet to win his second PGA Tour event in the state of Florida. After all, it has been five straight international players who have won at this place.  

      Arnold Palmer Invitational Predictions | Finishing Position Picks

      If you're looking to win money betting on golf outside of selecting who will win a tournament, you need to check out wagering on finishing positions.

      This is a great way to maintain a rooting interest throughout the entire tournament and still give yourself a chance at ending the weekend with some profits, even if lines are much more modest. Think about some of the following golfers if betting on finishing position:

      • Viktor Hovland Top 10 Finish (+150)

      Hovland is one of the best all-around players in the world and when he has things going, it's a joy to watch. He won back in December and has finished in the top 10 on three straight occasions now after a T-2nd at Concession. We're betting he can make it four top-10s in a row when the tour hits Orlando this coming week. 

      His last performance at Bay Hill didn't go well but he excels in most of the key areas including off the tee and hitting greens in regulation. Hovland also ranks near the top 20 on apparoach and has a vastly improved around-the-green game, which could serve him well at Arnie's place.  

      • Rickie Fowler Top 20 (+335)

      I know, I know...Rickie Fowler is not really a guy to back right now. He hasn't even come close to winning this season and didn't come all that close last season. But at these odds, he can't be ignored at Bay Hill. Fowler loves this place, as evidenced by his four top-20 finishes here since 2013. We think he can finish around there once again. 

      There seem to be plenty of holes in his game right now but Fowler has been decent enough off the tee and around the greens so far this season to compete. It would certainly come as somewhat of a surprise but +9000 odds for a player of his caliber aren't something to completely gloss over without a second look. 

        • Billy Horschel Top 30 Finish (-110)

        Horschel has been playing some pretty decent golf this year and it resulted in a final-group pairing last week and T-2nd finish ultimately. As we move along on this Florida swing, this is a player who is due for a breakthrough at Bay Hill. He's made the cut in all eight tries but has only been able to crack the top-20 on two occasions, most recently in 2017.

        Horschel is a Florida native who loves this time of the season (as many do) and proved it with a strong showing at the WGC-Workday. He's got four top-10 finishes in his last seven events dating back to December and is good enough off the tee and on the Par 5s to be worth a top 30 wager against a strong field.

        • Byeong Hun An Top 30 Finish (+225)

        Ben An is one of those players who is way down there on the odds board but perhaps shouldn't be forgotten about this week. He's made the cut five straight years at Bay Hill, finishing in the top 20 in both 2018 and 2019. An was in position for a decent finish at last year's event but posted a 77 on Sunday, as many others did in the harsh conditions. 

        An's off-the-tee numbers won't jump out but he's excellent tee-to-green and is a top-40 player on apparoach in addition to having one of the very best chipping games on tour. Players will inevitably miss these greens with their second shots and around-the-green play should factor into success. 

        2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational Best Bets

        • Rory McIlroy To Win (+900), Top 10 (+110)
        • Sungjae Im To Win (+2500), Top 20 (+125)
        • Tommy Fleetwood To Win (+4500)
        • Rickie Fowler To win (+9000)
        • Viktor Hovland Top 10 (+150)
        • Rickie Fowler Top 20 (+335)
        • Billy Horschel Top 30 (-110)
        • Byeong Hun An Top 30 (+225)

        We will continue to add and update selections until players tee off on Thursday, so check back throughout the week once all of the 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational betting odds are posted!

        Photo Credit: Associated Press

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        Brian Sausa

        Brian Sausa is BonusSeeker’s Copy Editor and lead sports betting pundit. A journalism graduate with an extensive sports background, Brian has been employed by multiple professional leagues including MLB, MiLB (Minor League Baseball), and the NHL.

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