Packers vs. 49ers Playoff Picks - NFC Championship Predictions 2020

Packers vs. 49ers Playoff Picks - NFC Championship Predictions 2020

The postseason field has been trimmed down to the final four teams and we are making NFL championship weekend predictions with just two games left to decide who will face off at Super Bowl 54!

The 2020 NFC championship will be decided when the No. 2-seeded Green Bay Packers will travel to San Fransisco to visit the top-seeded 49ers with kickoff set for 6:40 PM EST on Sunday, January 19 at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA.

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Packers vs. 49ers Picks: 2020 NFC Title Game Predictions & Preview

Few of us can forget the Week 12 mauling the Niners put on the Packers in Santa Clara. With this in mind, it's easy to imagine why San Francisco is between seven and 7.5-point favorites at most NJ betting sites early in the week. The total currently sits at 45.5, which is right around the finishing score of that 37-8 Niners win in late November.

What this game really comes down to is the Packers' offensive line versus the 49ers' defensive pressure. San Francisco's defense has ranked near the top of the DVOA metric charts at Football Outsiders for basically the entire season, so Green Bay will have a pretty stiff test.

NFC Title Game OddsPlace Packers-Niners Picks At Fox Bet NJ

Under coordinator Robert Saleh, the Niners were a top-five defense in sacks during the season (and almost every other category). This unit got to Rogers five times in Week 12 and sacked Kirk Cousins six times in the last game, but it isn't only about getting to the QB. The Niners' defensive front creates pressure without having to blitz, leaving more bodies in the secondary to play pass defense.

Green Bay will be able to run it a little bit and Rodgers is deadly given a little bit of time. Finding a way to somewhat neutralize DE Nick Bosa and the San Francisco front on passing downs, or at least force them to send extra blitzers, are the only ways the Packers play to a different result this time around.

For the Niners' offense (and the Packers' defense), the running game and third downs are key. The Niners' converted at 40 percent or less in each of the three losses, well below its season average and Green Bay held Seattle to just 33 percent during the divisional round.

Working in San Francisco's favor is the fact that it's third-ranked rushing attack faces a fairly weak Packers' run defense, which could lead to some pretty short third-down chances for the Niners. Credit the Packers, though, who held runners not named Russell Wilson to 46 yards on 17 carries in the last game.

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2020 NFL Playoff Predictions: NFC Championship Picks Against The Spread For Seahawks vs. Packers

If everything we've seen leading up to this point holds true, the 49ers should reach Super Bowl 54 in Miami. While that's pretty likely to happen, we are putting more stock in the lessons Green Bay learned from the last meeting than the final score of the game when it comes to betting the spread.

Aaron Rodgers, a northern California native, was held to a paltry 104 passing yards in that embarrassing Week 12 loss. There's no stat for this, but we can be sure a resurgent version of the Hall-of-Fame QB will take the field on Sunday. The same can be said for rookie coach Matt LaFleur, who has already been open about his mistakes against the 49ers.

Green Bay may not win this ballgame, but whatever happens, it won't go down with the same tactics that led to that 25-point loss. Especially when you keep in mind the friendship between LaFleur and Saleh, who know each other's systems well. The upcoming wrinkles that LaFleur will have waiting for Saleh are part of what makes us think this meeting is much closer than the last one.

There aren't many stats from the regular season you can point to and say the Green Bay holds an advantage. All we can say is: it isn't the regular season anymore, logic sometimes forgets to make its way into the playoffs (i.e. Titans in the AFC title game), and this is too many points to give away.

The Packers aren't the same team it was two months ago. In fact, it hasn't lost since, and some things you just can't quantify. What we can quantify, though, are the seven points we are taking as we select the underdog for our NFL title game picks.

Pick: Green Bay Packers +7.5 (-118) - Bet On The NFC Championship At Fox Bet NJ!

Super Bowl 54 Odds: Looking At Lines For Each Potential 2020 Super Bowl Winner

Super Bowl Odds Fox BetBet On Super Bowl 54 At Fox Bet NJ!

Despite being the two top seeds in the NFC, San Francisco and Green Bay didn't have the lowest 2020 Super Bowl odds in the conference. Before losing to Minnesota, New Orleans actually had a lower line than Green Bay, which means there was some serious value on the Packers. There still is some, too, Being that they're in the NFC title game and still +650 to win it all.

DVOA Playoff Odds Report
According to the above DVOA playoff odds report from Football Outsiders, the Chiefs have the best chance of any remaining team to win the Lombardi Trophy, and the odds reflect that sentiment. At Fox Bet PA, Kansas City's line is +125 with San Francisco not far behind at +163.

If you think the Niners are going to beat Green Bay, gobble up these odds now before the Super Bowl, where the Niners are unlikely to have a line quite so robust. The same can be said for the Chiefs, which would be the favorite in a matchup with either NFC team.

Looking for more information on wagering during the postseason? Check out our NFL playoffs betting guide for tips and strategies about how to win money on the road to Super Bowl 54!

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About Brian Sausa

Brian Sausa is BonusSeeker’s Copy Editor and lead sports betting pundit. A journalism graduate with an extensive sports background, Brian has been employed by multiple professional leagues including MLB, MiLB (Minor League Baseball), and the NHL.

MLB, NHL, IBTimes, Brooklyn Cyclones, FanSided

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