UFC 246: McGregor vs Cerrone Predictions | Will Cowboy Beat The Notorious One?

Joseph Kata, Last Updated: June 28th, 2024 - NJ Sports Betting - Free $3,250 For Sports Bets In New Jersey

We’re just a few short days away from UFC 246 and the return of Conor McGregor to the Octagon, as he squares off against Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone. This will no doubt be a barnburner that the fight world has been looking forward to ever since The Notorious One’s last foray in the UFC in 2016.

Unfortunately, both fighters are coming off tough losses in their last outings.

McGregor lost to the undefeated Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 229 and lost to Floyd Mayweather in the Mayweather vs. McGregor in “The Money Fight” in August 2017. For Cowboy, he most recently took a tough TKO loss in the 1st round against Justin Gaethje. A post-fight brawl led to a suspension for The Notorious One back in 2016, and a brief retirement kept McGregor from the Octagon until the booking of UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cerrone fight.

McGregor vs Cerrone Fight Date

The Conor McGregor vs. Donald Cerrone fight will happen at UFC 246: McGregor vs Cerrone on January 18, 2020. It is the main event of a solid fight card that includes Holly Holm, Anthony Pettis, and more. It will also feature the undefeated Maycee “The Future” Barber in her fourth UFC fight, having won her previous three by TKO thanks to high-level striking.

McGregor vs. Cerrone Betting Odds

Since the announcement of the fight, the UFC 246 odds for McGregor vs Cowboy have been steady in Conor’s favor. Depending on where you place your bet, you’ll see Conor McGregor at -275, such as at FoxBet NJ, or The Notorious One at -358 at NJ online sportsbooks such as BetMGM.

Both are understandable considering McGregor’s age, success, and how he’s fared in his recent bouts besides his drubbing at the hands of current UFC Lightweight champion, Khabib Nurmagomedov.

Beyond picking the winner of this fight, let’s check out some other McGregor vs Cowboy betting odds and see what may be a better bet:

• Fight Result (WIN): Conor McGregor -275 at FoxBet, Donald Cerrone +250 at BetMGM
• Conor McGregor Wins By KO/TKO: -150 at FoxBet NJ
• Conor McGregor Wins By Decision/Points: +800 at FoxBet
• Donald Cerrone Wins By Submission: +650 at BetMGM
• Donald Cerrone Wins By Decision/Points: +800 at BetMGM

The odds vary between online sportsbooks when you choose to bet by the method of victory, so it’s important to see your various options before you place your bet:

Best Sportsbooks For UFC Betting In Your State

McGregor vs Cerrone: Tale of the Tape

McGregor vs Cowboy Prediction

A lot of people are looking at this fight like it’s a means to a big payday for both Conor McGregor and Donald Cerrone, while setting up a victory for McGregor in order to lead into McGregor vs. Khabib 2 for the UFC Lightweight Belt. But I wouldn’t be too sure about that.

In my opinion, and seemingly in the opinion of the betting community, it boils down to how Conor McGregor is able to start the fight. In an interview with ESPN, UFC Welterweight contender Jorge Masvidal gave his opinion on how McGregor can end it early:

“Conor is great off the block. He’s phenomenal off the start. Cowboy is a slow starter. Conor has tremendous speed and timing in the beginning, good power, so I think he can catch him early.”

Masvidal also keyed in on Cowboy’s ability to stifle Conor’s lightning-quick starts to his fights:

“If Cowboy comes out to grapple like he has in the past with decent strikers and even good grapplers like Rick Story, who he was able to take down and create a lot of offense like that. If that Cowboy comes out, he can mix things up real nice. And then he can start to flow and get into his game of high kicks and punching and being tricky, like a dual threat to Conor.”

Our McGregor vs Cowboy prediction starts and ends with how Conor can start the first round. If he’s able to pick apart Cerrone, much like Justin Gaethje was able to do in Cowboy’s last fight, en route to a TKO finish in the first round, we’ll probably see a repeat with Conor McGregor By KO/TKO in Round 1.

However, if Cerrone can weather the onslaught in the first two rounds, or better yet, is able to take him to the ground and smother Conor’s offense, negating his striking while tiring him out, we might very well see an upset in the making, and a pause on McGregor vs Khabib 2.

Our Prediction

Overall, it’s easy to see why Conor McGregor will be able to beat Donald Cerrone at this stage of their careers. McGregor is younger, faster, and has stepped it up in a lot of his big fights (McGregor vs. Khabib notwithstanding).

This is especially true if Cerrone elects to stand with McGregor, which we have seen him to do against other fighters.

In his 50th pro MMA fight, Cowboy Cerrone looked the part of an old veteran against the younger, stronger Gaethje, who controlled the fight and picked him apart all through the first round until Cerrone collapsed in the last minute in defeat. His last fight against a superior striker like Gaethje, may suggest that Cerrone should change his approach.

We expect Conor McGregor to come out with a fury to try and shake the Khabib loss off real quick. It’s hard to pinpoint when, but we fully expect The Notorious One to win by KO/TKO.

Prediction: McGregor By KO/TKO -150: Bet On McGregor vs Cerrone At FoxBet NJ!

How Cerrone Can Win

If Cerrone comes out with the gameplan that stifles McGregor’s standup game by taking him down, it could provide an opening.

We have seen Conor at times fall to submissions before, such as in the Nate Diaz and Khabib Nurmagomedov fights. If Cowboy zones in on taking McGregor to the ground, this may be the best gameplay for Cerrone to implement, as we don’t believe he can win standing up. And at a +650, we like Donald Cerrone’s submission skills (his ground game can be overlooked, think Nate Diaz) enough to warrant it as our value pick.

Pick: Cerrone By Submission +650: Bet On McGregor vs Cerrone At BetMGM NJ!

Not from New Jersey? Then feel free to check out the table above to find a sportsbook in your state, or click to find even more online sports betting options in Indiana, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

UFC 246 Odds

Holly Holm vs Raquel Pennington Odds

Holly Holm (-133) vs. Raquel Pennington (+115) at FoxBet

Anthony Pettis vs Diego Ferreira Odds

Anthony Pettis (+200) vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira (-278) at BetMGM

Nasrat Haqparast vs Drew Dober Odds

Nasrat Haqparast (-333) vs. Drew Dober (+270) at FoxBet

UFC 246 Predictions

Holly Holm vs Raquel Pennington Predictions

Does Holly Holm have another run in her at 38 years old? The former UFC Women’s Bantamweight Champion that made a name for herself when she knocked out Ronda Rousey seems to be at the tail end of her fight career, having gone 2-5 in the UFC overall and being knocked out by Amanda Nunes in the first round in her last bout; a title fight in July 2019.

Raquel Pennington isn’t at the level of Holly Holm in terms of top opponents faced, although she also lost to Amanda Nunes but went five rounds with her before being finished. Rocky was able to go to a decision with Holly Holm in their first fight at UFC 184, losing by split decision.

I don’t see this fight going the same way, in terms of the winner. Even though Raquel may not have the pedigree that Holly Holm has, I don’t feel like Holm has it in her in this point of her career to be able to finish Pennington. And if she couldn’t finish her when her standup was much more crisp, I see Pennington grinding out a unanimous decision victory and possibly sending Holm for good.

UFC 246 Pick – Raquel Pennington By Decision/Points (+175): Bet On UFC 246 At BetMGM NJ!

Anthony Pettis vs Diego Ferreira Predictions

Is Diego Ferreira a top contender in the UFC Lightweight decision? With a five-fight UFC win streak over the past four years, Diego looks primed to make his mark on the division against Anthony Pettis.

But is Showtime ready to let Diego pass him by? Pettis has traded wins and losses over the past few years, with his latest loss to Nate Diaz in August via unanimous decision. It won’t be a KO or a TKO, but Ferreira is ready for the spotlight in my eyes with a dominant decision over Showtime.

UFC 246 Pick – Diego Ferreira By Decision/Points (+120): Bet On UFC 246 At FoxBet NJ!

Nasrat Haqparast vs Drew Dober Predictions

Nasrat Haqparast has been ascending the UFC Lightweight ranks with three straight wins and Fight Night bonuses in his last two victories, including a knockout of supposed up-and-comer Joaquim Silva at UFC on ESPN 5.

Drew Dober had a quick win shortly after the first minute of the first round against UFC punching bag Marco Polo Reyes and is not seen as a contender in the division, much less against Haqparast. Nasrat will beat Dober, although it’s tough to decide between a decision and a knockout, since he’s got the skills to do both against Dober. So let’s play it safe and call the fight result instead here.

UFC 246 Pick – Nasrat Haqparast Wins (-333): Bet On UFC 246 At FoxBet NJ!

ABOUT Joseph Kata

Joseph is a contributor at BonusSeeker after working many years as a site manager for MLB and NHL.com. Over the last 15 years, he has written for sports, betting, real estate, and dating sites. While one of his passions is delivering quality, usable content, he is also passionate about his family and sports.