UFC Fight Night Betting Predictions – Who Will Win This Week?

Joseph Kata, Last Updated: September 13th, 2024 - NJ Sports Betting - Free $3,250 For Sports Bets In New Jersey

The UFC is back, and it’s back in a big way with UFC 249!

UFC 249 is now scheduled for Saturday, May 9 in Jacksonville, FL with 12 bouts on a stacked card. The original main event months ago was Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Tony Ferguson but once again fell apart. This time it wasn’t an injury, but it was canceled for the first time (out of FIVE) with Khabib stuck overseas not able to travel.

Justin Gaethje was able to step up in the interim to face the streaking Tony Ferguson, who has set himself up for his original title defense after rattling off 12 straight wins. Gaethje has been on a bit of a roll on his own, winning two-straight main events and knocking out Donald Cerrone to solidify his #4 ranking in the Lightweight division.

Other key fights on the UFC 249 card include Bantamweight Champion Henry Cejudo defending his title against Dominick Cruz, and Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone in a legendary matchup against Anthony “Showtime” Pettis.

We’ll also cover fights from the following two UFC events: UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira and UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris.

Depending on who you bet on and what method of victory you choose, the odds can differ quite a bit. Your best bet is to check out all your options below to see which one gives you the best chance at a payout:

Best Sportsbooks For UFC Betting In Your State

UFC Fight Night Harris Vs Overeem Prediction

Alistair Overeem was on his way to a decision victory against Jairzinho Rozenstruik after the first four rounds until a jarring punch with four seconds left in the fight meant a KO loss and a gnarly split lip in the process.

Walt Harris has had an up-and-down UFC career against mid-level competition but The Big Ticket’s size may give him the advantage here against an aging ‘Reem. This is going to be one of those punch-for-punch contests these fighters are known for, and with Harris’ 13 wins all coming by KO, I’m thinking 14 is about to happen here with Overeem the victim.

Prediction: Harris To Win -155 At DraftKings

UFC Fight Night Smith Vs Teixeira Prediction

Nearly 10 years Teixeira’s junior, Anthony Smith has been at or near the top of the Light Heavyweight division, recently losing to champ Jon Jones via decision and beating Alexander Gustafsson by submission last June.

Glover Teixeira has won his last three fights, with his last win a split decision against Nikita Krylov. I feel Anthony Smith is at least on another level compared to Glover right now, maybe even two levels above with how strong his gas tank is right now. I don’t think this will go the distance but even if it did, Smith will wrap this one easily.

Prediction: A. Smith To Win -176 At BetMGM

UFC 249 Odds: Ferguson Vs. Gaethje

While Tony Ferguson was a heavy underdog against Khabib Nurmagomedov, he became a decent favorite when Justin Gaethje was slotted in to replace Khabib. While you can find varied odds for the following finishes to the fight at many sports betting sites around the country, we will spotlight DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM below:

• Fight Result (Win): Ferguson -177, Gaethje +150 at DraftKings
• Tony Ferguson Wins By KO/TKO: +260 at BetMGM
• Tony Ferguson Wins By Decision/Points: +600 at BetMGM
• Justin Gaethje Wins By KO/TKO: +180 at DraftKings
• Justin Gaethje Wins By Decision/Points: +1400 at BetMGM

Ferguson Vs. Gaethje: Tale Of The Tape

Ferguson Vs Gaethje Prediction

While Tony Ferguson may have been training for a while to face Khabib Nurmagomedov, “El Cucuy” has run the gamut of Gaethje-type fighters over the past few years and has beaten them all. I don’t think the drastic change in opponent from Khabib to Gaethje serves to hurt Tony in this manner.

Both fighters have beaten Donald Cerrone in their last fights, with Gaethje beating him last September via KO and Tony defeating Cowboy via doctor stoppage last June.

This is honestly going to be a more-entertaining fight to me than Tony vs. Khabib would have been, as I thought Khabib was going to smother Tony en route to another victory. Both opponents are not afraid to mix it up, and with the first UFC event in weeks bound to draw a massive viewer crowd, they may be looking to make a name for themselves in the process.

Ferguson has been “bringing it” during his winning streak against many of the top fighters in the division, and I feel like this will give him an advantage in this very interesting event. His ability to grind, wear opponents down, and pour it on when he smells blood is how I feel like he’ll be able to overcome Gaethje’s challenge.

Gaethje has escaped holds from many submission specialists in the past, so I’m predicting Ferguson by KO/TKO, while getting +260 from BetMGM.

Prediction: Ferguson By KO/TKO +260 At BetMGM

UFC 249 Betting Predictions

Cejudo Vs Cruz Prediction

Henry Cejudo started off his career 10-0 before losing his first two career fights to Flyweight legends Demetrious Johnson and Joseph Benavidez. Since then, he’s rattled off five-straight wins and captured the UFC Flyweight Championship and UFC Bantamweight Championship before relinquishing the Flyweight belt to concentrate on Bantamweight.

Standing in his way is the returning Dominick Cruz, who we last saw losing a five-round decision against Cody Garbrandt in 2016. This was his first loss in close to 10 years.

Dominick was given a title shot immediately upon return as he replaced Jose Aldo to face Henry Cejudo, and to me, that has to be too much to handle when you’re facing a stud like Cejudo. Cruz’s takedown defense has been pretty good over the years, but Cejudo taking him down and holding him there, maybe even the entire fight, is what I see as Cejudo’s key to victory.

Prediction: Cejudo By Decision +140 At DraftKings

Cowboy Vs Pettis Prediction

This should have been a bigger fight a few years ago but instead was a semi-main event back on a UFC on FOX card back in 2013. Both are legends who are on the downswing of their careers, with Cowboy having lost his last three fights via TKO to the two main eventers here and Conor McGregor. Pettis has also lost to two top contenders recently in Diego Ferreira and Nate Diaz.

Donald Cerrone recently stated that he, “couldn’t get fired up” and “didn’t want to be there” when talking about his last match with Conor, which resulted in a KO in the first round. That’s a tough thing to hear from a perennial contender, and you don’t hear that kind of talk from “Showtime” Pettis even as he has struggled recently.

If Pettis is ready to give his career another big push, and it’s hard not to considering he KOed contender Stephen Thompson about a year ago, I think he’s going to overwhelm Cowboy on the feet. I can’t see this going the distance.

Prediction: Pettis By KO/TKO +250 At BetMGM

ABOUT Joseph Kata

Joseph is a contributor at BonusSeeker after working many years as a site manager for MLB and NHL.com. Over the last 15 years, he has written for sports, betting, real estate, and dating sites. While one of his passions is delivering quality, usable content, he is also passionate about his family and sports.