On Monday Night Football in Week 7, the undefeated New England Patriots (6-0) travel to the AFC East rival New York Jets (1-4) with kickoff set for shortly after 8 PM from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.
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Patriots vs. Jets - MNF Picks And Predictions Week 7
After New England opened up as 9.5-point favorites, that spread has stuck at SugarHouse while some other PA online sports betting sites opened with the number at 10. Since the spread hovers around a key number, it will be worth paying attention to as kickoff nears.
Patriots Betting Preview Week 7
The Patriots are allowing the fewest points per game in the league (eight!) and scoring the most (31.7), though even the point total has a lot to do with the defense. The unit ranks first according to DVOA among plenty of other stats and a few weeks back it was the defense that shut out a Sam Darnold-less Jets offense for one of the Pats' six wins.
While the results are unlikely to be as lopsided, the Jets' offense still allows a league-worst five sacks per game while New England's defense has 26 of them. For good measure, the Patriots are allowing only 13.7 percent of third-down conversions, ranking No.1 in the league.
We haven't even gotten to the part where the Jets defense, which hasn't rushed the quarterback or turned the ball over much, needs to slow down Tom Brady and his stable of weapons. Much of that will depend on the protection provided by a somewhat struggling offensive line.
Jets Betting Preview Week 7
There appear to be two different Jets teams: the one with Sam Darnold and the one without, making all the numbers and rankings for this team pretty much obsolete.
Now that the starting QB is back in the picture, New York's offense actually looked competent while scoring three first-half touchdowns against Dallas in the Jets' first win of the season. A stiff test awaits, but the Jets are as ready as they'll ever be on both sides of the ball.
Working against the Jets the past few weeks was missing LB C.J. Mosley, who is set to return after being injured in Week 1. Having their captain on defense back in time to face Tom Brady and this offense is an immeasurable boost. The Jets have played exactly one half of football with both Darnold and Mosley, so we haven't seen everything the Jets are capable of yet.
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Week 7 Patriots vs. Jets MNF Betting Pick
On paper, New England is a superior team in each facet of the game and should find a way to win for an eighth consecutive time against the Jets Still, this is a divisional matchup in primetime on the road and the Jets are finally healthy, so that needs to be kept in mind.
If looking to bet the road favorites, the current spread at SugarHouse PA is fine to roll with but as soon as it hits 10 or more, we could see value shift over to the Jets once the key number is covered. The fact that professional bettors haven't jumped all over New England -9.5, though, definitely makes you question how comfortable the sharps are with the Patriots here.
We are going with the home underdog but would feel comfortable with some extra points. Most sportsbooks offer alternate spreads and totals in the event you want to give yourself extra points to work with or improve your payout by making the bet more difficult.
In this case, we are playing it a bit safe and buying a half-point to bring New York up to +10 (-132), expecting them to keep it close with another strong performance from Sam Darnold and a rejuvenated defense. A wise strategy would be to wait for the public to bet on New England, forcing the spread into double digits for a better price.
Pick: Jets +10 (-132) - Place Patriots vs. Jets Bets At SugarHouse PA
Monday Night Football Best Bet For Week 7
At most PA and NJ sports betting apps like SugarHouse, dozens of prop markets are offered for every NFL game including Monday Night Football. For Week 7, we've dug deep to find a prop bet you may not hear about often but still can potentially make some money. Our play here is to take the Jets to go over 1.5 field goals in the game on Monday night.
We are going by very simple logic. If the Giants can move the ball a bit on the Patriots in Foxborough, the Jets can certainly do the same playing at MetLife. New York's offense is set to be completely different than it was a few weeks back with Darnold in the fold, and they will be able to get a few first downs this time around.
What we aren't sure about is how they'll finish drives against a Patriots defense that's allowed the fewest touchdowns in the league so far. For that reason, we like the Jets to knock through at least two field goals in this game at a pretty decent price of -112.